The recession that’s taking hold in the U.S. and Europe is deepening amid a likely escalation of NATO’s proxy war (Twitter thread) with Russia in Ukraine. A sanction-induced energy shortage and subsequent liquidity crisis spawned by a strengthening dollar that the...
After the Federal Reserve initiated quantitative tightening (QT) in late fall of 2017, I published “96-Month and Subprime Auto Loans – It is All Good Until…” in May of 2018. At that time, household debt was at an all-time high, the Fed was raising interest rates at...
Today’s headline was written six months ago for Part 1, and at that time the fundamental picture and technical analysis dynamics of U.S. stock market indices were telegraphing potential trouble ahead. I recommend that you read Part 1 from December in full along with...
Since penning Part 1 and 2 (Twitter thread) in early April on the risk of recession this year, the chances of a hard landing vs. the Fed’s sanguine soft-landing narrative morphed into “we have a good chance of a softish landing” when Jay Powell delivered the FOMC’s...
It can be difficult to find a bear among analysts in the commercial real estate market despite the fact that office vacancy rates continue to rise across the country and distressed mortgages for office buildings are at the highest level since the Great Financial...