In the “Golan’s Valley of Hamon-Gog” installment of this series published in late January, a redeployment of Russia’s military police to patrol the border between Golan Heights and Syria (aka the Bravo Line) was highlighted as a potential flashpoint stemming from Israel’s war against Hamas in Gaza. Adjacent to the Bravo Line, exchanges of military strikes along Lebanon’s southern border (aka the Blue Line) between Israel and Hezbollah have increased and extended deeper into their respective territories. Meanwhile, the Houthis in Yemen continue to disrupt global supply chains by attacking commercial shipping and military vessels in the Red Sea. In late March, Russia deployed warships into the mix among NATO’s naval forces that have been unable to effectively end attacks by the Houthis.
Russian Navy enters Red Sea amid increased Houthi attacks – WION, Mar. 28, 2024
The mainstream press finally spent time reporting on Russia’s renewed air and ground presence in southwest Syria, but it was only after Russia deployed additional forces along the Bravo Line in early April. Those forces were added after Moscow condemned the West’s silence over a missile strike by Israel in Syria that obliterated a portion of Iran’s diplomatic consulate in Damascus and assassinated senior military brass from Hezbollah and Iran’s Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) Quds Force. Israel has not claimed responsibility for the attack. We also have the ongoing meat grinder in Ukraine with its front lines collapsing. Russia is advancing undeterred on the battlefield after the “Fall of Avdiivka,” France’s “Napoleonic Folly,” and a terrorist attack at “The Crocus” concert hall was reported to be coordinated and financed by Ukraine’s intelligence services and the collective West. The Kremlin stated publicly this month that it’s now in direct confrontation with NATO. Ukraine also launched a drone strike on the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant this week with confirmation by the IAEA and Russia noting that it’s a “very dangerous provocation.”
There is a heightened risk of WW3 escalation if regional conflict breaks out across the Middle East. This would add another nuclear wild card amid existing fiscal crises as reportage is obsessed with biblical undertones. War rhetoric since January has been off the charts and replete with that fifth-generation warfare (5GW) feel that’s echoing across the media landscape in a “fog of war.”
McConnell Threatens Nuclear Strike on Iran – Drudge, Jan. 29
Israel Kills Top Iran IRCG General at Damascus Consulate – Drudge, Apr. 1
Tehran vows response after strike blamed on Israel destroyed Iran’s Consulate in Syria and killed 12… “Iran on Tuesday vowed to respond to an airstrike attributed to Israel that destroyed Iran’s Consulate in the Syrian capital of Damascus and killed 12 people… The airstrike killed Gen. Mohammad Reza Zahedi, who led the Iranian Revolutionary Guard’s Quds Force in Lebanon and Syria until 2016, his deputy, Gen Mohammad Hadi Hajriahimi, and five other officers. A member of Hezbollah, Hussein Youssef, also was killed in the attack… Iran provides money and weapons to Hezbollah, Hamas, and other Palestinian militant groups fighting Israel in Gaza… At the U.N. Security Council’s meeting, Russia’s U.N. Ambassador Vassily Nebenzia lashed out at the U.S., United Kingdom, and France for failing to condemn Israel’s violation of international law and intentionally striking a diplomatic premise… America’s Wood retorted: ‘On the contrary, it is Iran and its proxies that have been carrying out a number of attacks throughout the region.’ Under the 1961 Vienna convention on diplomatic immunity, the premises of a diplomatic mission are inviolable.” – AP, Apr. 2
Khamenei Looks at Coffins of IRGC Officers Killed at Consulate – JP
Israel’s response to how and where Iran chooses to retaliate is key to the eventual outcome. Keep in mind that Israel is an undeclared nuclear power and armed to the teeth with a “Samson Option” doctrine, while Iran is on the verge of developing a nuclear weapon or has kept its progress a secret in its Natanz facility deep underground. It was reported today in the Washington Post that the nuclear deal with Iran is in tatters as “Iran edges close to weapons capability.” Israel Foreign Minister Israel Katz warned earlier today that they will retaliate against Iran it if strikes them.
Iran Nuclear Facilities Map
Israel threatens to strike Iran directly if Iran launches attack from its territory… “Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei reiterated a promise to retaliate against Israel over the attack on its consulate in Damascus… ‘When they attacked our consulate, it was like they attacked our territory,’ Khamenei said during a broadcast on Iran’s state television network. ‘The evil regime must be punished, and it will be punished.’ Khamenei made the remarks at a prayer ceremony celebrating the end of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan… Khamenei also criticized the West, particularly the U.S. and Britain, for supporting Israel in its war against Hamas in Gaza. ‘It was expected they (would) prevent (Israel) in this disaster. They did not. They did not fulfil their duties, the Western governments,’ he said. Iran does not recognize Israel.” – AP, Apr. 10
International criticism of Israel has risen to unprecedented levels, and several United Nations resolutions have condemned the war and humanitarian crisis unleashed upon Gaza. Only support from the United States has allowed Israel to continue despite disagreements on policy, but two recent incidents may have jeopardized total support. The first was Israel’s assassination of seven World Central Kitchen workers in Gaza last week who were staff for a U.S.-based charity with good connections to Congress. The second was the Israeli missile attack on Iran’s consulate in Damascus. The U.S. is extremely concerned over that attack because any response by Iran may include U.S. installations in the Middle East, which could escalate the conflict into a regional war. Rumor has it that Biden made a deal with Khamenei that if Iran refrains from striking U.S. interests, the U.S. will not interfere if they strike Israel. It could be a PsyOp, or maybe not.
U.S. and Iran Deal if Iran Hits Israel – BRICS, Apr. 5
I suspect there will be two events occurring simultaneously or one will trump the other leading to a “make plans and God laughs” routine. Israel’s military halted its invasion of southern Gaza last weekend and pulled most of its forces off the battlefield. It was reported that Israel’s military (IDF) is regrouping, reinforcing its northern Blue Line, and is prepared to launch an operation into Rafah to complete its mission of eliminating Hamas’ military capability in Gaza and rescue any hostages that are still alive. A senior U.S. military commander is slated to go to Israel tomorrow and coordinate around a possible attack on Israel by Iran, and Bloomberg has reported today that missile strikes are imminent by Iran and its proxies. Will Iran strike before or after Israel enters Rafah? Israel’s air force is hitting Rafah as I type.
Gantz: ‘We will enter Rafah and go back to Khan Yunis’… “National Unity chairman Benny Gantz said during a press conference in Sderot on Wednesday… ‘From a military point of view – Hamas is defeated. Its fighters are eliminated or in hiding. Its abilities are cut off, and we will continue to strike what remains. Victory will come step by step. We are on our way to it, and we will not stop. We will enter Rafah. We will return to Khan Yunis. And we will operate in Gaza. Wherever there are terror targets – the IDF will be there.’” – JP, Apr. 10
All of the above is why gold transitioned to a secular bull phase in late March and early April with a decisive rally deep into blue-sky territory. Let’s close shop today with an excerpt from what James Kunstler penned about Israel two days ago.
Bang-and-Whimper… “Today is also the end of Ramadan, the Islamic holy month of fasting, prayer, atonement, and reflection. What follows this pause in the troubled Middle East, a.k.a. Armageddonville? I daresay most adult citizens of sore-beset America actually don’t care. . . can’t care, because they have trouble enough of their own keeping a roof overhead, a car on the road, and food on the table. The Woke-Marxist college kids are wailing over the actions of Israel in Gaza — as they will for anyone within their dumb-ass equation of victims-and-oppressors, especially involving brown and white people. It is a brutal operation in Gaza, for sure, but so was the Hamas act-of-war on October 7 that many want to forget about now. They still hold and torture hostages, you know… So, the rest of the world is very concerned now that this will lead to World War Three, world wars being the grand prize at the end of many historical cycles. Of course, the Iranians have been chanting Death to Israel in so many words for decades, so no one can mistake Iran’s intentions. And Iran has funded and deployed Hezbollah military bases on Israel’s northern frontier with Lebanon. They are said to have thousands of high-tech rockets capable of decimating Tel Aviv. Everybody knows that launching such an operation could result, ten minutes later, in Tehran becoming an ashtray.” – James Howard Kunstler
Stay frosty on the home front, ensure your financial house is in order, and keep the pantry well-stocked with non-perishables.
Phil Giraldi: Israel’s Dangerous Game – Judge Napolitano, Apr. 10
Plan Your Trade, Trade Your Plan
TraderStef on Twitter / Website: TraderStef.com
