The far-left apparatchiks that hijacked a moderate Democratic party I grew up around appear to lack any common sense and hypocritically deny reality amid innumerable reasons of why the Kamala-Walz campaign lost the 2024 presidential election to president-elect Trump-Vance who swept the popular vote, electoral college, House, and Senate. Meanwhile, Biden’s lame duck administration is unnecessarily escalating NATO’s proxy war against Russia in eastern Ukraine’s meat grinder with a WW3 nuclear lit fuse. It is also handing the Trump administration geopolitical chaos with numerous battlefields around the world, domestic policy failures that are bankrupting municipal budgets, millions of illegal aliens embedded with criminal gangs that roam our largest cities and small towns, excess deaths and disabilities plaguing the population due to the plandemic gene-modification inoculation mandates, passing along a zombie national debt that surpassed $36 trillion last week on the heels of a consumer debt crisis, and leaving us plebeians with a $1 trillion annual interest payment that’s growing exponentially which currently exceeds the Pentagon’s annual spending for its military-industrial complex.

 

I am guessing the last time you attended a roundtable meal in the U.S. with a whole family and/or friends was last Christmas, Thanksgiving like today, or maybe you celebrate more holidays with large reunions. When you do, they are probably not aware of Thanksgiving’s actual history, prefer to avoid politics, but occasionally one of your peeps pops the question about investing in gold or silver. As you attempt to explain precious metal market dynamics, more often than not, blank stares take over and they cannot wait until you finish and get on with food or watch TV. If you are lucky enough to have folks with a genuine interest, roadblocks still surface because the majority of well-intentioned, wonderful people have no clue about how their currency or money came into existence, why shrinkflation contributed to the rising cost of your holiday meal, or the reason regular gasoline has remained stubbornly above three bucks a gallon since 2021. The moment you are done answering the best you can, facial expressions begin to mirror the faces in today’s headline image. Do you really think they believe you or care? I totally understand that dilemma.

Let’s move on to an excerpt from the “Gold and Silver Outlook UPDATE for Fall 2024” published (X thread) on Oct. 31, a link garden of prescient data points and commentary since the previous analyses, an updated technical analysis on the gold and silver spot charts, and end today with a John Doody interview by Daniela Cambone, Judy Shelton on the prospect of gold-backed U.S. bonds with David Morgan, and Colonel Douglas Macgregor discusses the current escalation ladder to a potential nuclear exchange with Judge Napolitano.

“The prospect of WW3 on our doorstep and/or civil unrest on the home front has not abated, a contentious 2024 presidential election cycle is slated to pick a popular vote winner in the next week, record numbers of wealthy Americans are making plans to skedaddle out of Dodge ‘fearing political and social unrest regardless of who wins,’ the U.S. national debt spiked $473 billion in just three weeks, and gold continues to print new all-time highs (ATHs).” – TraderStef

• Biden Pokes the Bear – Jim Rickards
• Surge of “Little Green Men” – Part XXV: ATACMS Strike – TraderStef (thread)
• Russia amasses record amount of gold reserves – Pravda
• Russia Dominates as World’s Largest Owner of Natural Resources – Statista
• Visualizing Gold Consumption vs. Domestic Supply – Visual Capitalist
• Illusion Of Growth: How Inflation Skews The Stock Market – Epoch Times
• Gold – Best Asset in 2000s But You Ain ’t Seen Nothing Yet – Gold Switzerland
• Central Bank Gold Demand Rebounds in September – Money Metals
• Judy Shelton Returns with a Bold Plan to Restore Gold – Peter Schiff
• FOMC cuts interest rate quarter-point, wrestles w/election, inflation, jobs – MarketWatch
• Europe Is Finalizing Preparations for a Gold Standard – Jan Nieuwenhuijs
• Post-election fall in gold a “stumble, not a sea change” – JPMorgan
• Gold-Backed or Bust: Judy Shelton’s Plan to Tame Fed, Restore Dollar – Paul Mueller
• Hedge funds slashed bullish wagers on gold over Trump election win – Mining
• UAE will be Asia’s gold hub in BRICS’ new economic corridor – Gulf News
• US & European Officials Discussed Giving Ukraine Nuclear Weapons – AntiWar
• Ukrainians have stolen up to half of US aid – ex-Polish deputy minister – RT
• Matt Taibbi Exclusive: America’s Loss of Trust in Media Can’t Be Fixed – Quote the Raven
• Europe Central Bank Warns Surging Government Debt “Potential Threat” – Money Metals
• Gold Set for Biggest Weekly Jump in 20 Months on Safe Haven Demand – Bloomberg
• People’s Bank of China covertly buying very large amounts of gold – Jan Nieuwenhuijs
• Safe Haven Silver? Outperforms Gold In Geopolitical & Financial Chaos – Money Metals
• Silver: Charts to Watch in Global Commodity Markets This Week – Bloomberg
• Dollar & Bond Yields Fall on Trump’s Treasury Secretary Pick Scott Bessent – Bloomberg
• Trump’s Treasury pick calms bond market, stock indices rise – CNBC
• Interest on $36 Trillion National Debt Risks Trump Growth & Inflation Promises – AP
• Continuous jobless claims rose to 1,907,000, most since Nov. 2021 – ZH
• Fed’s preferred inflation gauge rises to 2.3% annually, meeting expectations – CNBC
• US national economic activity fell in October for the fifth straight month – ZH

 

• “Trumpflation” Tariff Risks Overstated, Been Here Before – Lance Roberts at RIA

 

• Operating Losses and “Unrealized” Losses of the Federal Reserve in 3Q24 – Wolf Street

 

Below is today’s technical analysis for gold and silver. Rips and dips in the dollar and breaking news events combined with the dominance of algorithms, automated trading decisions, high-frequency trading (HFT) platforms, and artificial intelligence radically influence price action across all financial markets in either direction within microseconds and cause bouts of extreme volatility. Be mindful that a window of opportunity for swing or scalp trading precious metal ETFs, spot, options, futures, or mining stocks does not necessarily equate to the timing for layering core long-term positions or investing in physical bullion and coins. Slicing and dicing a daily chart only provides a window into the next several days or a couple weeks. To view a larger version of any chart below, mouse over it and select or right-click and choose a “view image” option.

 

Gold Spot daily chart as of Nov. 28, 2024, 1pm ET…

 

Excerpt from the Sep. 26, 2024 (thread) daily chart analysis:

“Gold’s price action decisively left the Aug. 20 ATH of $2,531.59 in the dust on Sep. 12 with a breakout from the Rectangle Top (Flag?) consolidation pattern. An Ascending Scallop formed following the Fed’s interest rate cut on Sep. 18 and an enormous buy Volume spike on Sep. 19 set up a short-lived Flag Tilt and subsequent rally higher this week. The price action printed an ATH today of $2,685.41 and closed at $2,672.20 when spot trading shut down for one hour at 5pm ET until the 6pm GLOBEX open. Note how the price action has taken a breather at each Fibonacci Extension level in blue-sky territory. The price is currently too far beyond the 50 Exponential Moving Average (EMA), the StochRSI clearly indicates an overbought condition but could linger a bit longer, the DMI-ADX (not shown) is set up with an Alligator Tongue that could launch an upside power trend, and buy Volume remains solid. The chart is bullish, and a breather with some consolidation is the ideal outcome in the near term. Note that the higher the price runs and extends beyond the 50 EMA, the larger an eventual pullback will be in search of solid support levels.”

Excerpt from the Oct. 31, 2024 (thread) weekly chart analysis:

“Gold consolidated within a Half Staff Flag following the Sep. 26 analysis then broke out and printed a new ATH this week at $2,790 and closed today at $2,744 following U.S. unemployment claims data released this morning. One more day of trading remains for the week, and the weekly candlestick closed today as a Northern Doji (50/50 chance for more gains or a corrective price action). There was more selling than buying today, and the final print is a toss-up. Reports tomorrow morning on U.S. non-farm employment and unemployment rates for October will determine the final candle. No matter how the job numbers play out tomorrow, any event in the Russia-Ukraine or Israel-Iran wars over the weekend can significantly influence near-term price action when trading resumes Sunday evening through Monday. The upside price action since mid-June that added $500 per ounce has been spectacular with healthy consolidations and remaining above August’s lower trendline. The first level of solid support is at $2,650 within the Half Staff Flag from late September through early October. I annotated two additional Fibonacci Extension levels for blue-sky target levels if this secular bull market phase continues to run unabated through the holiday season without an extended breather or major correction. The DMI-ADX remains in power-trend mode, the price is still too far beyond the 50 EMA, but overall buy Volume since mid-August is still strong and rising. The chart is bullish, but caution is warranted if an indecisive Northern Doji or a Plunger Candle is the final print this week.”

TraderStef & Rob McInerney on Seasonality – Nov. 12…

 

The previous weekly chart analysis warned that a Northern Doji was developing, and a bearish Tweezer Top on the daily chart was called on Nov. 12 in an X thread on the Oct. 31 analysis. There was a brief consolidation above the $2,730 Fibonacci Extension level after the Tweezer Top $2,790 high, but Trump’s election win on Nov. 5 elicited a streak of irrational exuberance that believed risk in the world had suddenly evaporated and triggered profit taking, margin calls, and cascading selloffs. The correction pierced $2,650 support, the Up Channel’s lower trendline drawn up from Aug. 2024, 50 EMA, and exhausted after a third step down to $2,537 on Nov. 14. That low printed into a weekend when news headlines reported Biden would approve the use of U.S. ATACMS long-range missiles for Ukraine to strike deeper into Russia. Reality suddenly manifested and a hard pivot to the upside commenced on the evening of Sunday Nov. 17 through Nov. 22. After a high of $2,721 on Nov. 25, a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah leaked into the press and gold retreated to the 50 EMA. Since that time price is consolidating along the 50 EMA around $2,630 and held below $2,650 resistance.

The DMI-ADX is trying to untangle itself from recent price volatility. Since Nov. 17 the StochRSI has maintained an upward trend, the 50 EMA and $2,650 are a confluence of resistance, and buy Volume is trending downward while price has risen which is not positive. The chart is neutral near-term, but remains bullish within its renewed secular bull market phase. Tension between Russia and the collective West currently outweighs other risks, and headlines in the near-term will likely keep gold steady and higher as we approach upside seasonality going into the New Year.

Silver Spot daily chart as of Nov. 28, 2024, 1pm ET…

 

Excerpt from the Sep. 26, 2024 (thread) daily chart analysis:

“Silver rallied with vigor after printing a Triple Bottom in early September and spiked back above the 50 EMA on Sep. 12. The price action mirrored gold during the Fed’s interest rate cut announcement, and an enormous buy Volume bar on the following day launched a rally above the Descending Broadening Wedge’s topside trendline with a few days of battle. That consolidation formed a bearish Rising Wedge, but momentum ignored that pattern, and the price rallied this week into strong resistance at around the $32.50 high from May 20. The price action did not decisively take out $32.50 today and ran into resistance at $32.70 before pulling back and printing a bearish Plunger Candle. Just like with gold, the price is extended too far beyond the 50 EMA, the StochRSI shows an overbought condition that might linger a bit longer, the DMI-ADX (not shown) is set up with an Alligator Tongue for an upside power trend, and buy Volume is solid. If silver leaves $32.50 in the dust sooner than later, the next major resistance levels are $35.50 and $37.50. The chart is bullish, and a breather with some consolidation is the ideal outcome in the near term. Note that the higher the price runs and extends beyond the 50 EMA, the larger an eventual pullback will be in search of solid support levels.”

Excerpt from the Oct. 31, 2024 (thread) weekly chart analysis:

“Silver consolidated following the Sep. 26 analysis and ripped $2 higher in mid-October. The rally stalled at its $34.85 high on Oct. 22, and a Northern Doji candle printed a $33.64 close last week. The price action closed today at $32.67 with a bearish Plunger Candle following the U.S. unemployment claims data this morning. One more day of trading remains for the week, and the U.S. non-farm employment and unemployment rate for October will determine the final candlestick tomorrow. The upside price action since the first week of August was healthy with brief consolidations and added a huge $8.20 per ounce as of last week’s high. The first level of solid support rests slightly above $32, and the next level is at around $31.50 at the Up Channel’s lower trendline. Upside resistance is at the $35.50 and $37.50 laterals drawn back to 2012. The DMI-ADX remains in power trend mode but has been trending sideways since mid-September, the price is still too far beyond the 50 EMA, and buying Volume since mid-August was strong and rising until selling appeared last week. The chart is bullish, but caution is warranted if a bearish Plunger Candle is the final print this week.”

The silver chart has mirrored gold’s downside price action after its own Northern Doji print on the weekly and a bearish Tweezer Top at $34.85 on the daily. Price bottomed out between $30 support and just above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $29.60. The positive is that the price has held above a lower trendline drawn back to a Feb. 2024 low. Overhead resistance rests at the 50 EMA, and 50% Fibonacci at $30.60. The DMI-ADX remains in a negative trend, StochRSI is choppy, and buy Volume has waned since price challenged the overhead 50 EMA. The chart remains bullish, but caution is warranted in the near-term if gold experiences any further downside price action before upside seasonality kicks in as we approach the New Year.

John Doody: Don’t Get Blindsided by Trump Market Euphoria – Chaos Ahead, You Need Gold – Daniela Cambone, Nov. 18

 

Judy Shelton: Sound Money: “Why Don’t We Use Our U.S. Gold Reserve As Collateral For A New Treasury Debt Instrument” & Gold being bought in massive quantities – David Morgan, Nov. 23

 

Colonel Douglas Macgregor: Close to WWIII? “Get on your knees and pray”– Judge Napolitano, Nov. 26

 

Plan Your Trade, Trade Your Plan

TraderStef on Twitter / Website: TraderStef.com