The precious metals spiked in 2024 with plenty of opportunity to trade, add core positions, or stack more physical bullion coins. Gold Spot opened on GLOBEX in January at $2,062, printed an all-time high (ATH) of $2,790 (+36%) on Oct. 31, and closed this afternoon in New York at $2,624 (+28%). Silver Spot opened at $23.73, posted a high of $34.85 (+47%) on Oct. 22, and closed today at $28.85 (+22%).

Let’s move on to an excerpt from the “Gold and Silver Outlook for Late Fall 2024” published (X thread) on Nov. 28, a link garden of prescient commentary since late November, a technical analysis on the gold and silver spot charts, and end with an interview by Daniela Cambone featuring David Webb who is the author of “The Great Taking.”

“The far-left apparatchiks that hijacked a moderate Democratic party I grew up around appear to lack any common sense lately, and hypocritically deny reality amid innumerable reasons of why the Kamala-Walz campaign lost the 2024 presidential election to president-elect Trump-Vance who swept the popular vote, electoral college, House, and Senate. Meanwhile, Biden’s lame duck administration is unnecessarily escalating NATO’s proxy war against Russia in eastern Ukraine’s meat grinder with a WW3 nuclear lit fuse. It is also handing the Trump administration diplomacy chaos and numerous domestic policy failures.” – TraderStef

Putin Chess vs Collective West

• Playing Nuclear Chicken – Jim Rickards
• 2024 was a year of gaslighting — here are the worst media lies – NY Post
• China Discovers $83 Billion Gold Deposit, World’s Largest – Live Science
• Global financial crisis looming? Poland buys 100 tons of gold – NewsBytes
• Gold could become dollar’s main competitor in world trade – TASS
• CME’s New 1 oz Gold Futures Contract Opens in Jan. 2025 – CME Group
• Hereus Report: Gold price record high potential in 2025 – Reuters
• Biden Admin Loans $20B in Russian Assets to Ukraine – Newsmax
• Repatriated Gold Reaches Historic Highs – Jan Nieuwenhuijs
• Gold and silver could become official currency in Florida – FirstCoast News
• The Stunning Collapse of Syria in Only Twelve Days – The Hindu
• How the West Rebranded Al-Qaeda’s Jolani as New Leader of Syria – Consortium
• Russia, Germany, Turkey Condemn Israeli Land Grab In Syria – ZH
• Trump’s Economic Plans – Jim Rickards
• Fed Cuts by 25 Basis Points to 4.25%-4.50%, Only 2 Cuts in 2025 – Wolf Street
• Cut And Pause: Fed FOMC Meeting Summary – Real Investment Advice
• India Gold Imports at Record Levels in November – Money Metals
• How does Silver Act During War? – Armstrong Economics
• China Secretly Snaps Up More Gold, Its Greater Global Role – Jan Nieuwenhuijs
• Treasury chief Yellen issues US debt warning – RT
• Credit Card Defaults Surge to Highest Level Since Great Recession – MishTalk
• I Hereby Resolve… Gold and Silver in 2025 – MoneyMetals
• Celebrating Death Of Woke And Resurrection Of Common Sense – Alt-Market
• No, Truth Is Not Just Another Story For Trump Administration – Howard Kunstler
• Gold Confiscation vs. Central Bank Digital Currency – Armstrong Economics
• Gold Heads for Biggest Gain Since 2010 in Mixed Year for Metals – Bloomberg
• How the Fed and Trump could collide in 2025 – Yahoo Finance
• Bird Flu a U.S. gain of function virus and lockdown psyop – Robert W Malone, MD

Below is today’s technical analysis for gold and silver. Rips and dips in the dollar and breaking news events combined with the dominance of algorithms, automated trading decisions, high-frequency trading (HFT) platforms, and artificial intelligence radically influence price action across all financial markets in either direction within microseconds and cause bouts of extreme volatility. Be mindful that a window of opportunity for swing or scalp trading precious metal ETFs, spot, options, futures, or mining stocks does not necessarily equate to the timing for layering core long-term positions or investing in physical bullion and coins. Slicing and dicing a daily chart only provides a window into the next several days or a couple weeks. To view a larger version of any chart below, mouse over it and select or right-click and choose a “view image” option.

Gold Spot daily chart as of Dec. 31, 2024 close…

Excerpt from the Oct. 31, 2024 (thread) weekly chart analysis:

“Gold consolidated within a Half Staff Flag following the Sep. 26 analysis then broke out and printed a new ATH this week at $2,790 and closed today at $2,744 following U.S. unemployment claims data released this morning. One more day of trading remains for the week, and the weekly candlestick closed today as a Northern Doji (50/50 chance for more gains or a corrective price action)… No matter how the job numbers play out tomorrow, any event in the Russia-Ukraine or Israel-Iran wars can significantly influence near-term price action. The upside rally since mid-June that added $500 per ounce has been spectacular with healthy consolidations… The first level of solid support is at $2,650 within the Half Staff Flag from late September through early October. I annotated two additional Fibonacci Extension levels for blue-sky target levels if this secular bull market phase continues to run unabated through the holiday season without an extended breather or major correction. The DMI-ADX remains in power-trend mode, the price is still too far beyond the 50 Exponential Moving Average (EMA), and overall buy Volume since mid-August is still strong. The chart is bullish, but caution is warranted if an indecisive Northern Doji or a Plunger Candle is the final print this week.”

Excerpt from the Nov. 28, 2024 (thread) daily chart analysis:

“The previous weekly chart analysis warned that a Northern Doji was developing, and a bearish Tweezer Top on the daily chart was noted on Nov. 12 in an X thread from the Oct. 31 analysis. There was a brief consolidation above the $2,730 Fibonacci Extension level after the Tweezer Top $2,790 high, but Trump’s election win on Nov. 5 elicited a streak of irrational exuberance that believed risk in the world had suddenly evaporated and triggered profit taking, margin calls, and cascading selloffs. The correction pierced $2,650 support, the Up Channel’s lower trendline drawn up from Aug. 2024, 50 EMA, and exhausted after a third step down to $2,537 on Nov. 14. That low printed into a weekend when news headlines reported Biden would approve the use of U.S. ATACMS long-range missiles for Ukraine to strike deeper into Russia. Reality suddenly manifested and a hard pivot to the upside commenced on the evening of Sunday Nov. 17 through Nov. 22. After a high of $2,721 on Nov. 25, a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah leaked into the press and gold retreated to the 50 EMA. Since then, price is consolidating along the 50 EMA and below $2,650 resistance. The DMI-ADX is trying to untangle itself from recent price volatility. The StochRSI has maintained an upward trend since Nov. 17, the 50 EMA and $2,650 are a confluence of resistance, and buy Volume is trending downward while price has risen which is not positive. The chart is neutral near-term, but remains bullish within its renewed secular bull phase. Tension between Russia and the collective West currently outweighs other risks, and headlines in the near-term will likely keep gold steady or higher as we approach upside seasonality going into the New Year.”

Gold Futures Seasonality 20yr Average

Gold consolidated along the 50 EMA through late November and early December before spiking back into the $2,720s during a coup and collapse of Syria’s government. A PPI report released on Dec. 12 indicated wholesale inflation rose more than expected which brought into question if the Fed’s FOMC announcement on Dec. 18 would cut interest rates. The price action pulled back below the 50 EMA, pivoted upward after the Fed agreed on another quarter-point cut to the 4.25%-4.50% range, but the committee’s “dot-plot” indicated there may be fewer cuts in 2025 than previously projected.

The price is printing higher lows since mid-November and a bullish Symmetrical Triangle is developing. A pattern of concern nestled within that Triangle is a bearish Big M, which increase a risk for further downside if the most recent upward pivot in price does not decisively break back above the 50 EMA sooner than later. The sooner the price rallies upward, the earlier upside seasonality can take hold in 1Q25. The DMI-ADX is trending laterally negative and is indecisive while the breadth in Volume is muted due to the holiday season. The chart is neutral near-term, but remains bullish within its renewed secular bull phase and is likely to take out the ATH in 2025.

Silver Spot daily chart as of Dec. 31, 2024 close…

Excerpt from the Oct. 31, 2024 (thread) weekly chart analysis:

“Silver consolidated following the Sep. 26 analysis and ripped $2 higher in mid-October. The rally stalled at its $34.85 high on Oct. 22, and a Northern Doji candle printed a $33.64 close last week. The price action closed today at $32.67 with a bearish Plunger Candle following the U.S. unemployment claims data this morning. One more day of trading remains for the week, and the U.S. non-farm employment and unemployment rate for October will determine the final candlestick tomorrow… Upside resistance is at the $35.50 and $37.50 laterals drawn back to 2012. The DMI-ADX remains in power trend mode but has been trending sideways since mid-September, the price is still too far beyond the 50 EMA, and buying Volume since mid-August was strong and rising until selling appeared last week. The chart is bullish, but caution is warranted if a bearish Plunger Candle is the final print this week.”

Excerpt from the Nov. 28, 2024 (thread) daily chart analysis:

“The silver chart has mirrored gold’s downside price action after its own Northern Doji print on the weekly and a bearish Tweezer Top at $34.85 on the daily. Price bottomed out between $30 support and just above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $29.60… Overhead resistance rests at the 50 EMA, and 50% Fibonacci at $30.60. The DMI-ADX remains in a negative trend, StochRSI is choppy, and buy Volume has waned since price challenged the overhead 50 EMA. The chart remains bullish, but caution is warranted in the near-term if gold experiences any further downside price action before upside seasonality kicks in for the New Year.”

Silver Futures Seasonality 20yr Average

After silver printed a Hammer Candle close at $30.19 on Nov. 28, the price action rallied to $32.20 resistance before the PPI inflation report. A subsequent pullback mirrored gold’s reaction and fell back below the 50 EMA. After the Dec. 18 interest rate cut, the price pivoted upward before Christmas from a $28.73 low but failed to retake $30. This week’s price action has revisited the previous low and closed today at $28.86.

Since the Oct. 22 high, a bullish Falling Wedge has developed and will remain in-play if the lower trendline is not decisively breached. The next level of support rests at $28. The DMI-ADX is in a negative power trend pattern, but the sell and buy Volume have trended downward since Trump was elected on Nov. 5. The chart is neutral until the 50 EMA is retaken on significant buy Volume as we shift into 2025.

Warning: Why Banks Will Seize Everything You Own Unless We Stop the “Great Taking” – David Webb Interview w/ Daniela Cambone – ITM Trading, Dec. 13

Plan Your Trade, Trade Your Plan

TraderStef on Twitter / Website: TraderStef.com