Donald Trump was sworn in as the 47th President of the United States last Monday and gold investors have salivated over a price rally since mid-December that was $5 shy of breaching the October $2,790 all-time high (ATH) on Friday. Prior to Trump’s inauguration, many economists and market analysts opined that his economic and geopolitical policies could push inflation higher and depress global growth. This past Wednesday, he excoriated world leaders and business executives at the World Economic Forum (WEF) annual meeting in Davos (via video) and demanded lower global interest rates. His comments certainly clash with the Federal Reserve’s current monetary policy path as Chair Jay Powell has made it clear the FOMC is in no rush to cut rates. The next FOMC meeting is slated for Jan. 28-29.

NATO’s proxy war with Russia over Ukraine remains hot on the battlefield despite potential peace talks brewing with Trump and Putin, and Middle East tensions over Israel abated with ceasefires among the waring parties. Gold appears to be reacting lately more so to Trump’s policy initiatives and how they may impact the domestic and global economy. Gold has rallied into the New Year mirroring its seasonality pattern and remains a proven safe haven asset for retail investors and institutional hedges against geopolitical and economic risks.

Let’s move on to an excerpt from the “Gold and Silver Outlook for Winter 2024” published (X thread) on Dec. 31, a link garden to a selection of the latest economic data and precious metals commentary, a technical analysis on the gold and silver spot charts, and end with a podcast by Chris Martenson & Paul Kiker at Peak Prosperity on Trump’s presidency and whether his latest “shock & awe” approach to implement policies is a positive or negative for your investment portfolio going forward.

“The precious metals spiked in 2024 with plenty of opportunity to trade, add core positions, or stack more physical bullion coins. Gold Spot opened on GLOBEX in January at $2,062, printed an all-time high of $2,790 (+36%) on Oct. 31, and closed this afternoon in New York at $2,624 (+28%). Silver Spot opened at $23.73, posted a high of $34.85 (+47%) on Oct. 22, and closed today at $28.85 (+22%).” – TraderStef

 

 

 

• Happy New Year: A Toast to 50 Years of Legalized Gold – Mises Institute

 

• Dollar Reserves Crash to 30yr Low, Central Banks Stockpile Gold – ITM Trading (video)

 

 

• Can Trump Save the Dollar? – Mises Institute

Can Trump Save the Dollar?… “Between the Biden administration inadvertently and obliviously endangering the global reserve currency status of the dollar through its own incompetence, and Trump’s intention to undo this damage, there is a better path. Any future American administration should create a plan to manage the transition away from the fiat dollar as global reserve currency towards a national gold dollar that’s 100 percent gold-backed, where other countries are free to set their own monetary policy. This would vastly improve the American economy as well as international relations.”

• CBO Projects US Debt +$24 Trillion Next Decade – Congressional Budget Office
• US budget deficit +$711 billion first 3 months Fiscal Year 2025, +39% 2024 – GBI
• Treasury Sec. Yellen announces US hit debt limit Jan. 21 – Kobeissi Letter
• US Credit Card Defaults Reach 14-Year High – Armstrong Economics
• Expected Federal Reserve interest rate cuts parred back for 2025 – TheStreet
• Wyoming Senate Bill to Establish Gold Reserve – Sound Money Defense League
• Investors buy gold despite strong dollar & rising Treasury yields – MarketWatch
• PPI inflation report comes in much cooler than expected – Jesse Cohen
• Consumer Prices Soared Over 21% Under Biden And Real Wages Fell – ZH
• Latest inflation data is likely to keep Fed rates on pause for now – Yahoo Finance
• UBS 2025 Precious Metals Outlook: Silver’s Turn – GoldFix & ZH
• Why is Societe Generale resuming gold trading using derivatives – Invezz
• How Illegally Smuggled Gold Is Fueling The U.S. Gold Boom – CNBC (video)
• Roosevelt Also Confiscated Silver in 1933 – Armstrong Economics
• Why the gold boom is causing a surge in illegal mining – CNBC
• Why gold is edging back toward its all-time high – Jim Rickards

• Why Gold Will Continue to Shine in 2025 and Beyond – Jan Nieuwenhuijs

 

• US tariffs will send Mexico gold, silver abroad for processing – Mining (2019)
• Gold price climbs as Trump stands by plans for Mexico, Canada tariffs – Mining
• Gold & Silver in Technology, a Higher Silver Price? – Canadian Prepper (video)
• Gold & Silver Shortages Amidst Unprecedented Demand – Birch Gold Group
• People on unemployment benefits highest in three years – Washington Examiner
• Americans working full time + a part time job near record highs – Coastal Journal
• Which countries produce the world’s silver? – Mining (Mexico #1)
• Mexico Silver Mining, Exports, Imports – Observatory of Economic Complexity
• SocGen sees excellent opportunity to go long silver, short oil – Neils Christensen
• Trump’s tariffs projected to damage Mexico, Canada, China economies – PIIE
• Gold Hits Highest Price Since October Amid Trump Tariff Talk – Bloomberg
• Will Comex gold face import tariffs? Price rising on tariff talk? – Alasdair Macleod
• Lacy Hunt on Global Capacity Glut and the “Mish Recession Indicator” – MishTalk
• US Treasury Adds Measure to Avert a Debt-Ceiling Breach – Bloomberg
• S&P 500 at new record, Dow +400 points as Trump pushes for low rates – CNBC
• Gold Prices Poised to Surge Amid Trump Economic Policies – Gary Wagner
• Gold Miners’ Best Quarter Ever in 4Q24 – Zeal
• Gold price flirts with record high on Trump’s dovish China remarks – Mining
• Large City Price Declines, Single-Family Homes/Condos 9% to 21% – WolfStreet
• Existing Home Sales Thaw, Highest Supply for December since 2018 – WolfStreet
• Trump says he will ‘demand’ that interest rates come down, not that simple – AP
• Trump at DAVOS demands ‘interest rates drop immediately’ – CNBC (video)

Below is today’s technical analysis for gold and silver. Rips and dips in the dollar and breaking news events combined with the dominance of algorithms, automated trading decisions, high-frequency trading (HFT) platforms, and artificial intelligence radically influence price action across all financial markets in either direction within microseconds and cause bouts of extreme volatility. Be mindful that a window of opportunity for swing or scalp trading precious metal ETFs, spot, options, futures, or mining stocks does not necessarily equate to the timing for layering core long-term positions or investing in physical bullion and coins. Slicing and dicing a daily chart provides a window into the next several days or couple weeks. To view a larger version of any chart below, mouse over it and select or right-click and choose a “view image” option.

 

Gold Spot daily chart as of Jan. 24, 2025 close…

 

Excerpt from the Nov. 28, 2024 (thread) daily chart analysis:

“The previous weekly chart analysis warned that a Northern Doji was developing, and a bearish Tweezer Top on the daily chart was noted on Nov. 12 in an X thread subsequent to the Oct. 31 analysis. There was a brief consolidation above the $2,730 Fibonacci Extension level after the Tweezer Top $2,790 high, but Trump’s election win on Nov. 5 elicited a streak of irrational exuberance that believed risk in the world had suddenly evaporated and triggered profit taking, margin calls, and cascading selloffs. The correction pierced $2,650 support, the Up Channel’s lower trendline drawn up from Aug. 2024, 50 Exponential Moving Average (EMA), and exhausted after a third step down to $2,537 on Nov. 14. That low printed into a weekend when news headlines reported Biden would approve the use of U.S. ATACMS long-range missiles for Ukraine to strike deeper into Russia. Reality suddenly manifested and a hard pivot to the upside commenced on the evening of Sunday Nov. 17 through Nov. 22. After a high of $2,721 on Nov. 25, a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah leaked into the press and gold retreated to the 50 EMA. Since then, price is consolidating along the 50 EMA and below $2,650 resistance. The DMI-ADX is trying to untangle itself from recent price volatility. The StochRSI has maintained an upward trend since Nov. 17, the 50 EMA and $2,650 are a confluence of resistance, and buy Volume trended downward while price has risen which is not positive. The chart is neutral near-term, but remains bullish within its renewed secular bull phase. Headlines in the near-term will likely keep gold steady or higher as we approach upside seasonality into the New Year.”

Excerpt from the Dec. 31, 2024 (thread) daily chart analysis:

“Gold consolidated along the 50 EMA through late November and early December before spiking back into the $2,720s during a coup and collapse of Syria’s government. A PPI report released on Dec. 12 indicated wholesale inflation rose more than expected which brought into question if the Fed’s FOMC announcement on Dec. 18 would cut interest rates. The price action pulled back below the 50 EMA, pivoted upward after the Fed agreed on another quarter-point cut to the 4.25%-4.50% range, but the FOMC’s ‘dot-plot’ indicated there may be fewer cuts in 2025 than previously projected. The price is printing higher lows since mid-November and a bullish Symmetrical Triangle is developing. The sooner the price rallies upward, the earlier upside seasonality can take hold in 1Q25. The DMI-ADX is trending laterally negative and is indecisive while the breadth in Volume is muted due to the holiday season. The chart is neutral near-term, but remains bullish within its renewed secular bull phase and likely to take out the ATH in 2025.”

 

The bullish Symmetrical Triangle that developed since mid-November was confirmed after an Up Channel on rising buy Volume drove a decisive break through the 50 EMA, lateral resistance at $2,650, and lastly the triangle’s topside trendline following a PPI inflation report considered dovish (December data was seen as bearish) sparked enormous buy Volume on Jan. 16. Resistance at $2,720 was tapped the next day and a brief Throwback confirmed support at the 61.8% Fibonacci level before slicing through the $2,720 lateral like butter after Trump’s inauguration day. A solid rally ensued until the price action was $5 shy of October’s $2,790 ATH on Friday and closed for the week at $2,772.

There are no bearish indicators on the weekly or daily charts and both show an Alligator Tongue power trend on the DMI-ADX, and buy Volume remains steady on the daily albeit lower than the Jan. 16 spike. Support is at price laterals and trendlines left behind this month. The near-term ATH blue sky Fibonacci levels are $2,846 and $2,883. The chart is bullish and expect intermittent pullbacks to confirm any fresh support levels in blue sky territory.

Silver Spot daily chart as of Jan. 24, 2025 close…

 

Excerpt from the Nov. 28, 2024 (thread) daily chart analysis:

“The silver chart has mirrored gold’s downside price action after its own Northern Doji print on the weekly and a bearish Tweezer Top at $34.85 on the daily. Price bottomed out between $30 support and just above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $29.60… Overhead resistance rests at the 50 EMA, and 50% Fibonacci at $30.60. The DMI-ADX remains in a negative trend, StochRSI is choppy, and buy Volume has waned since price challenged the overhead 50 EMA. The chart remains bullish, but caution is warranted in the near-term if gold experiences any further downside price action before upside seasonality kicks in for the New Year.”

Excerpt from the Dec. 31, 2024 (thread) daily chart analysis:

“After silver printed a Hammer Candle close at $30.19 on Nov. 28, the price action rallied to $32.20 resistance before the PPI inflation report. A subsequent pullback mirrored gold’s reaction and fell back below the 50 EMA. After the Dec. 18 interest rate cut, the price pivoted upward before Christmas from a $28.73 low but failed to retake $30. This week’s price action has revisited the previous low and closed today at $28.86. Since the Oct. 22 high, a bullish Falling Wedge has developed and will remain in-play if the lower trendline is not decisively breached. The next level of support rests at $28. The DMI-ADX is in a negative power trend pattern, but the sell and buy Volume have trended downward since Trump was elected on Nov. 5. The chart is neutral until the 50 EMA is retaken on significant buy Volume as we shift into 2025.”

 

Silver is underperforming compared to gold despite it mirroring the ups and downs of gold, but its technicals are slowly improving. The Falling Wedge’s topside trendline has been challenged for a week as the price action hovers above the 50 EMA at roughly $30.50. An Up Channel has taken hold since an Eve & Eve Double Bottom formed through the holidays and it won’t take much momentum to move the price action toward $31 and $32 resistance levels. Unfortunately, the potential for an explosive rally is not currently shown on the DMI-ADX trending sideways (indecisive), but do not lose sight of the strength building in the buy Volume department. The chart is bullish and requires some patience.

Trump Presidency: Good Or Bad for Your Portfolio? – Chris Martenson & Paul Kiker, Peak Prosperity, Jan. 23

 

Plan Your Trade, Trade Your Plan

TraderStef on Twitter / Website: TraderStef.com