Gold continues to print new all-time highs (ATHs), and silver is tagging along for the ride with NATO’s proxy war in Ukraine against Russia escalating to a nuclear trigger while Israel obliterates Hezbollah’s leadership and stronghold in southern Lebanon risking a Middle East regional war. The Federal Reserve panicked last week with a large 0.50% interest rate cut while the U.S. economy is in shambles and a financial crisis looms on the horizon. Meanwhile, fiscal chaos and crime are rampant across the U.S. inflamed by the illegal immigrant invasion enabled by an insane asylum of Biden-Harris domestic and fiscal policies over the last four years. Additionally, International diplomacy failures have launched an unprecedented geopolitical theater and heightened the risk of WW3 while ongoing domestic lawfare and the weaponization of government along with legacy media sycophants have merged into the 2024 presidential election cycle resulting in assassination attempts and continued threats on Trump’s life. Our world is ablaze, and the precious metals thrive on crises.

 

Let’s begin today with an excerpt from the “Gold and Silver Outlook UPDATE for Late Summer 2024” (Twitter thread), a link garden of data points and commentary, an updated technical analysis on the gold and silver charts, and we will close with last week’s John Paulson and Jeffrey Gundlach interviews.

“Both gold and silver have rallied since the prior analyses and are worthy of an update following Jay Powell’s pivot on monetary policy at Jackson Hole to begin cutting interest rates in September. The Financial Times is also onboard for additional price gains with ‘This Gold Rush Has Staying Power’ published on Aug. 28. The WSJ’s opinion in 2015 that gold was only a ‘Pet Rock’ is certainly over with all-time highs breaching $2,500 per ounce.” – TraderStef, Aug. 31

• Gold Is Rising Because of Demand for ‘Fallback Money’ – Bloomberg
• Bank of Canada Cuts Rates Third Consecutive Month – BoC
• Gold rebounds from lows after weak US jobs openings data – Bloomberg
• Mystery of Switzerland’s surging imports of Uzbek and Kazakh gold – SwissInfo
• The yield curve inversion is WORSE than 1929 and 2008 – Game of Trades

 

 

• Silver: The Unsung Hero of The New Economy – Visual Capitalist
• Gold Prices by U.S. President (1989-2024) – Visual Capitalist
• 3 Million Americans Just Lost Their Jobs, Replaced By 635,000 Immigrants – ZH
• Russian gold reserves at 25yr record level of $188.8 billion – Emirates News
• The Purchasing Power of $100 in Each U.S. State – Visual Capitalist
• CPI Inflation Fell To 2.5% In August, Lowest Since March 2021 – Forbes

 

• Raised 1Q25 gold target from $3000 to $3400, silver $60 to $75 – David Hunter
• New Jersey Eliminates Sales Taxes on Gold and Silver – Money Metals
• Saudi Arabia Secretly Buys 160 Tonnes of Gold in Switzerland – Jan Nieuwenhuijs
• Turkey gold imports a steady 7 tons in Aug., silver increase sharply – Gold Reporter
• Gold Is at ‘Escape Velocity.’ That Could Be a Warning for Stocks – Barron’s
• Visualizing Gold Consumption vs. Domestic Supply – Visual Capitalist
• Gold is having a moment but silver is poised for its own – Yahoo Finance
• Fed is more worried about labor market than Powell let on – MarketWatch
• The Fed Pivots (Panics): Something bad this way comes – Tuomas Malinen
• Federal Reserve .50 Interest Rate Cut: Good News, Bad News – Jim Rickards
• Incoming Recession, Rates Drop & Gold Hits All-Time High – Jim Rickards (video)
• India Reports Record Gold Imports in August – Money Metals
• Metal Mania Starts Soon – Daily Reckoning
• Securities Exchange Commission Hints at Fresh Financial Fears – Daily Reckoning

 

• The Fed’s Last Sign of Independence May Be Gone – Daniel Lacalle
• Goldman Sachs: Gold Buying Relentless, And Silver Is Starting To Move Too – ZH
• Consumer Confidence Biggest Crash Since 2021 – Armstrong Economics
• Nations in mBridge Project Stockpiling Gold, Driving Up Prices – Jan Nieuwenhuijs
• Global Markets Soar, Gold Hits Record After China Vows Fiscal Policy Bonanza – ZH
• David Tepper: Fed has to cut rates two or three more times to keep credibility – CNBC
• Investors realizing rate cuts won’t save real estate market – MarketWatch
• Israel obliterates Hezbollah leadership, preparing for ground war in Lebanon – The Hill
• EU Virtual Declaration of War on Russia, Putin’s Response – Armstrong Economics
• Union strike to shut down East Coast ports, paralyze supply chains – FreightWaves

 

Below is today’s technical analysis for gold and silver. Rips and dips in the dollar and breaking news events combined with the dominance of automated trading decisions, HFT platforms, and artificial intelligence radically influence price action across all financial markets in either direction at all times within microseconds and cause bouts of extreme volatility. Be mindful that a window of opportunity for investing in swing or scalp trading precious metal ETFs, spot, options, futures, or mining stocks does not necessarily equate to timing for layering core long-term positions or purchasing physical bullion and coins. To view a larger version of any chart below, mouse over it and select or right-click and choose a “view image” option.

Gold Spot daily chart as of Sep. 26, 2024 at 4pm ET…

Excerpt from the Aug. 30, 2024 (thread) daily chart analysis:

“The Financial Times article on Aug. 28 referred to gold’s bouts of strength this year as a ‘cyclical’ trend, but it’s more appropriate to define it as seasonality, which was covered in my previous analysis. Gold printed a new ATH of $2,531.59 on Aug. 20 and settled at $2,502.32 into Friday’s close. The ATH occurred after breaching the Flag Tilt’s topside trendline and/or the Neckline of an Inverse Head & Shoulders continuation pattern. A subsequent Throwback tested support at the Symmetrical Triangle’s topside trendline that formed prior to the ATH and has since incurred a consolidation with higher lows and ATH resistance that’s forming an Ascending Triangle. I have updated Fibonacci Extensions off of the new ATH with a couple near-term resistance levels to watch for when the price action rallies into additional blue-sky territory. The DMI-ADX is indecisive but remains positive, support rests around the 50 Exponential Moving Average (EMA), and buy Volume is steady and strong since mid-August with one day of large selling that occurred in a Throwback following the ATH. There may be additional consolidation before a new high is reached and is dependent upon economic and geopolitical news cycles. There is no technical damage in the daily or weekly (has a bullish DMI-ADX) chart, and the price action remains bullish.”

Gold’s price action decisively left the Aug. 20 ATH of $2,531.59 in the dust on Sep. 12 with a breakout from the Rectangle Top (Flag?) consolidation pattern. An Ascending Scallop formed following the Fed’s interest rate cut on Sep. 18 and an enormous buy Volume spike on Sep. 19 that set up a short-lived Flag Tilt and subsequent rally higher this week. The price action printed an ATH today of $2,685.41 and closed at $2,672.20 when spot trading shut down for one hour at 5pm ET until the 6pm GLOBEX open. Today’s daily candle printed a bearish Plunger Candle (aka Shooting Star).

Note how the price action has taken a breather at each Fibonacci Extension level in blue-sky territory. The price is currently too far beyond the 50 EMA, the StochRSI clearly indicates an overbought condition but could linger a bit longer, the DMI-ADX (not shown) is set up with an Alligator Tongue that could launch an upside power trend, and buy Volume remains solid. The chart is bullish, and a breather with some consolidation is the ideal outcome in the near term. Note that the higher the price runs and extends beyond the 50 EMA, the larger an eventual pullback will be in search of solid support levels.

Silver Spot daily chart as of Sep. 26, 2024 at 4pm ET

Excerpt from the Aug. 30, 2024 (thread) daily chart analysis:

“Silver has rallied since printing a low above the $26 support at $26.34 on Aug. 8, encountering resistance at $30.17 on Aug. 26, and closing at $28.42 on Friday. The price action appears to be forming a Half Staff Flag on the daily chart around the 50 EMA and above 2024’s 38.2% Fibonacci level. Resistance at $30 must be decisively retaken on large buy Volume for the Descending Broadening Wedge’s topside trendline to be challenged and retest the $32.50 high from May 20. The DMI-ADX is indecisive but remains positive, and the buy Volume has been solid since mid-August with one day of large selling that mirrored gold’s Throwback from its ATH. The technical damage noted in the Aug. 11 analysis was repaired after the price surged back above the 50 EMA on Aug. 16. The chart has returned to a bullish stance but is reliant upon the Half Staff Flag manifesting a rally above the $30 resistance.”

Silver rallied with vigor after printing a Triple Bottom in early September and spiked back above the 50 EMA on Sep. 12. The price action mirrored gold during the Fed’s interest rate cut announcement, and an enormous buy Volume bar on the following day launched a rally above the Descending Broadening Wedge’s topside trendline with a few days of battle. That consolidation formed a bearish Rising Wedge, but momentum ignored that pattern and the price rallied this week into strong resistance at around the $32.50 high from May 20. The price action did not decisively take out $32.50 today and ran into resistance at $32.70 before pulling back and printing a bearish Plunger Candle.

Just like with gold, the price is extended too far beyond the 50 EMA, the StochRSI shows an overbought condition that might linger a bit longer, the DMI-ADX (not shown) is set up with an Alligator Tongue for an upside power trend, and buy Volume is solid. If silver leaves $32.50 in the dust sooner than later, the next major resistance levels are $35.50 and $37.50. The chart is bullish, and a breather with some consolidation is the ideal outcome in the near term. Note that the higher the price runs and extends beyond the 50 EMA, the larger an eventual pullback will be in search of solid support levels.

John Paulson: I’d go into cash and gold if Kamala Harris elected – Fox Business, Sep. 17

 

Gundlach: The Fed’s “Recalibration,” 75 bps of Rate Cuts in ’24 and Portfolio Positioning – CNBC, Sep. 19

 

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TraderStef on Twitter / Website: TraderStef.com

Headline Collage Art by TraderStef