A technical analysis of the gold and silver charts in the “Outlook for Spring 2024” were published after market close on Friday, Apr. 5 following Israel’s Apr. 1 missile strike on Iran’s Syrian consulate in Damascus. This was confirmed during the period leading to Iran’s retaliatory strike from its sovereign soil on Apr. 13. Reportage remains fluent, and any confirmation that Israel is executing a kinetic response will certainly impact financial markets and could unfold after publishing this tonight. Let’s begin with an excerpt from Apr. 5, look at a summary of the price action from last Friday, give an update on the charts, and close shop with interviews about the precious metals by Clive Thompson on Apr. 8 and Jim Rickards on Apr. 9.

“Reasoning for the current rally in gold and silver finally catching up is multi-faceted but primarily driven by worldwide fiscal crises while on the precipice of a WW3 escalation with peaceful diplomacy nowhere in sight. Legacy media is clearly out of touch with no relevant analyses on matters concerning the precious metals because their headlines are infiltrated by multiple fifth-generation warfare (5GW) issues and enticing dreamers to gamble on billion-dollar lottery jackpots with ridiculous odds of losing… If Iran’s proxy war against Israel and/or NATO’s proxy war against Russia in Ukraine escalate in the near-term, it is possible that a seasonal price correction that typically occurs in the spring may not happen this year.” – TraderStef, Apr. 5

The Apocalypse Scenario IV… “The most frightening scenario is that the wars in the Middle-East and Europe will flare up within the next few months (or even weeks). Rallies in gold, oil, and stocks of weapons companies suggests that something is up. Be prepared for extreme events.” – Tuomas Malinen, Apr. 6

 

The flavor of analyses from some pundits in the precious metals arena was classic after a shallow Throwback in price on Friday, Apr. 13. While gold and silver have rocketed higher with intermittent spikes since late March, there was dead silence from the bleacher seats. Without exception, they assign an outdated manipulation narrative about futures market boogeymen at any price retreat, obviate the price spikes, and provide no actionable guidance for traders, investors, or retail plebes. Please consider Occam’s razor for a moment:

What is Occam’s Razor?… “Occam’s (or Ockham’s) razor is a principle attributed to the 14th century logician and Franciscan friar William of Ockham. Ockham was the village in the English county of Surrey where he was born. The principle states that ‘Entities should not be multiplied unnecessarily’… The most useful statement of the principle for scientists is: ‘When we have two competing theories that make exactly the same predictions, the simpler one is the better.’” University of California

Below is my response to questions and comments since last Friday’s price action before Iran’s missile attack. It addressed facts based on chart reality where futures contracts do not determine the current price, ETF share prices are predetermined by gold and silver spot, and the spot market is global in scope including futures, the cash market, and numerous contract sizes and bullion standards. So, without obviating or regurgitating false narratives:

“Yes! Good eye noting that daily Plunger Candle at the close. Let’s add context. The time length of a candlestick matters, i.e., a 1-minute candle form at its close is a heads-up to what may transpire in the next minute, and the same logic applies to all candlestick times. While watching that Throwback (the near-term extremely overbought condition warranted a breather) price action yesterday in both gold and silver, note on the 1-minute chart that it began immediately after Europe/London stock markets closed for the weekend at 11am ET. That tells you big, non-margin, stale long contracts that held the bag since the 2021 ridiculous ‘squeeze’ narrative and new contracts on margin since late March and early April wisely took cash profit off the table and were devoid of emotion (pros and institutions) regardless of fundamentals or war rhetoric in order to regroup, assess, and prudently await the $29-$30 zone to be decisively left in the dust before committing large capital to a bull that could easily run to $50. After an explosive rally in such a short time since late March that obliterated the $26 resistance and briefly breached $28 going into $29, the $26-$29 zone had to be tested as support, which was formally resistance. How or when it materialized is irrelevant as it just had to happen at some point. The Throwback was three steps down with a brief fourth amounting to -1.7% in silver spot and -1.2% in gold spot on the daily chart. That’s large but not significant in the big picture and was not technical damage to the uptrend. I noticed that each step down incurred significant buying. A Plunger Candle on the daily does signal caution for the next day or next few days depending on the Globex open at 6pm ET Sunday and Asia at 8pm ET. The ripple effect will have them adjust positions because they were closed when the Throwback unfolded (a few European and Asian players certainly had access to Globex to react, but the U.S. was larger in comparison during the time after 11am). Buying begets buying, and selling begets selling. Lastly, note that the DMI-ADX Alligator Tongue power trend setup on the daily/weekly chart did not flinch. The DMI (green momentum) and ADX (black) indicators are still bullish. It looks like the Throwback will be shallow, then buying will return as the Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Iran wars are not going to have sudden peace events. Let’s see how the Middle East pans out over this weekend. I see that Iran seized a container ship a few hours ago in the Strait of Hormuz. A shutdown of that waterway would be much more significant for oil than the Red Sea.” – TraderStef, Apr. 13

Below is today’s technical analysis for gold and silver. Rips and dips in the dollar and breaking news events combined with the dominance of automated trading decisions, HFT platforms, and artificial intelligence radically influence price action across all financial markets in either direction at all times within microseconds and cause bouts of extreme volatility. Be mindful that a window of opportunity for swing or scalp trading precious metal ETFs, spot, options, futures, or mining stocks does not necessarily equate to timing for layering core long-term positions or purchasing physical bullion and coins. To view a larger version of any chart below, mouse over it and select or right-click and choose a “view image” option.

 

 

Gold Spot 2-hour and weekly chart as of Apr. 15, 2024, 5pm close…

 

Excerpt from the Mar. 15, 2024 (Twitter thread) weekly gold chart analysis:

“The gold spot hourly chart posted on my Twitter feed on Mar. 5 shows where a Swiss Stair formation occurred and is indicative of institutional accumulation at the rally’s onset in the first week of March… At Friday’s Mar. 15 close, the price action was taking a breather within a Symmetrical Triangle. On the weekly chart, note that the $2,195 high on Mar. 8 was within $5 of the $2,191 Fibonacci Extension level drawn on the weekly chart published on Jul. 31, 2020. Utilizing Fibonacci is a tried-and-true method for populating a blue-sky condition that’s void of price history, which is essential to identify price level targets over the horizon… The Half Staff Flag noted on Feb. 29 was confirmed as bullish last week when the price decisively spiked through its topside trendline and the Inverse Head & Shoulder’s Neckline. Now we wait and see if the current retreat in price is a Throwback that tests the Neckline’s $2,100’ish as a solid level of support. Friday closed at $2,155.67. The weekly’s DMI-ADX is at the early stage of a bullish Alligator Tongue setup, the StochRSI topped out and mirrors the Throwback… all the moving averages remain lined up perfectly, and buy Volume increased for two weeks but printed lower this past week. Again, price follows Volume, and levels that are at least close to previous bars during rallies are needed to confirm this rally has legs for the near-term. The chart is bullish with a Throwback in play.”

Excerpt from the Apr. 5, 2024 (Twitter thread) monthly gold chart analysis:

“Gold is certainly having its day in the sun while spring settles into North America. The price action has decisively spiked through the resistance zone in the $2,070s since late March, exited the primary consolidation phase that lasted a decade, and returned to a secular bull market in late March and early April… An updated monthly chart since gold’s 1999 low is in order. We are in deep blue-sky territory with powerful momentum and expect breathtaking rips and dips along the way. I have included the latest Fibonacci Extension levels on the chart that will eventually become support and resistance stages going forward. The DMI-ADX has secured an Alligator Tongue power trend setup. Last month’s buy Volume was solid, and April could match or possibly exceed March. There are overbought signals in the shorter timeframes, but they are likely to produce shallow pullbacks, and momentum players will ladder long positions at every dip. This explosive rally will only slow after exhaustion. There is no candlestick history or any analyst that can provide anyone with a definitive roadmap. Fibonacci and basic chart reading skills are all there are and a fun sandbox for seasoned traders. Friday closed at $2,327.50, and the chart is still bullish.”

The gold spot price action registered a high of $2,431 last Friday before profit-taking prior to the weekend. Fibonacci Extension levels on your radar should include $2,453 and $2,562 while support currently rests at $2,361 and $2,324. The DMI-ADX remains in a bullish Alligator Tongue power trend setup on the daily, weekly, and monthly chart. StochRSI is in the overbought zone on the monthly, almost there on the weekly, and the daily mirrored Friday’s pullback. Buy Volume is steady and strong on all three but printed an overall sell bar on the daily last Friday. Today’s high was $2,387 on solid buy Volume following the low of $2,324 early this morning. Market makers are awaiting Israel’s military response to Iran’s missile strikes. Today’s close was $2,383, and the chart remains bullish with no technical damage to speak of.

Silver Spot 2-hour and weekly chart as of Apr. 15, 2024, 5pm close……

 

Excerpt from the Mar. 15, 2024 (Twitter thread) weekly silver chart analysis:

“On the weekly chart, silver has still been consolidating since early 2022 with higher lows within an Ascending Triangle. Solid resistance is at the 23.6% Fibonacci and $26. Keep in mind that gold can drag silver upward but is fighting a recessionary downtrend in price that has been plaguing many commodities since mid-summer 2022. Roughly 50% of silver demand is for industrial use, not monetary. The current rally spiked through the Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) and printed a high of $25.43 last week with Friday closing at $25.18. The weekly’s DMI-ADX is unremarkable without a bullish Alligator Tongue setup, StochRSI is partially overbought, Money Flow and Momentum are struggling to rise, the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) is in the overbought zone, and all the moving averages remain lined up nicely, but buy Volume has not increased. Again, Volume levels that are at least close to previous bars during solid rallies are needed to decisively breach $26 and challenge the $29 and $30 resistance. The price action is procrastinating but bullish.”

Excerpt from the Apr. 5, 2024 (Twitter thread) weekly silver chart analysis:

“Silver’s breakout above the Ascending Triangle’s topside trendline at $26 on Apr. 2 was significant. This rally was fueled by a Swiss Stair (noted in Twitter thread, but the 2-hour chart above was not published) pattern that began its buildout on Apr. 1, which resulted in a hefty gain just shy of $3 with Friday’s high at $27.48. There is minimal resistance from here until challenging $29 and $30. Do not be surprised if a Throwback occurs first to test $26 as solid support. Silver remains in a primary bull consolidation phase and will not return to a secular bull run until $50 is decisively taken out. The DMI-ADX rapidly formed an Alligator Tongue power trend setup along with improved buy Volume that’s rising since mid-March. Every dip opportunity over the last two weeks was eagerly bought by momentum players. Time is rapidly running out for laddering core positions below $30 if this rally continues unabated. Friday closed at $27.43, and the chart is bullish.”

The silver spot price action registered a high of $29.78 last Friday before profit-taking prior to the weekend. A low of $27.23 printed at the Globex open on Sunday evening, and today’s high was $28.87. Support currently rests at $26.30, $27.23, and $28. The DMI-ADX remains in a bullish Alligator Tongue power trend setup on the daily, weekly, and monthly chart. StochRSI is approaching the overbought zone on the monthly, is almost there on the weekly, and the daily barely registered Friday’s Throwback while hanging onto overbought territory. Buy Volume is steady and strong on all three but printed an overall sell bar on the daily last Friday. As with gold, market makers are awaiting Israel’s military response to Iran’s missile strikes. Today’s close was $28.80, and the chart remains bullish with no technical damage to speak of.

“My new interview with Korea Economic Daily covers the gold market and geopolitics of gold in depth. (The Korean language segment at the beginning is brief; switches to English quickly). Enjoy!” – Jim Rickards, Apr. 9

 

“If we get to a currency reset, the countries that have a lot of gold will be sitting at the table. And those who have no gold will be told what to do.” – Clive Thompson

Reset To Happen Drastically Without Warning; I Fear “Dystopian Future” For Grandkids Warns Insider – Clive Thompson interview by Daniela Cambone at ITM Trading, Apr. 8

 

Plan Your Trade, Trade Your Plan

TraderStef on Twitter / Website: TraderStef.com

Headline Collage Art by TraderStef