The technical analysis on gold and silver in early April for spring noted a possibility that “seasonal price corrections that typically occur in the spring may not happen this year” and “there were overbought signals in the shorter timeframes, but they are likely to produce shallow pullbacks, and momentum players will ladder long positions at every dip.” In the subsequent analyses for mid-spring, a long-winded response to followers about incremental pullbacks occurring in silver explained that “after an explosive rally in such a short time since late March that obliterated the $26 resistance and briefly breached $28 going into $29, the $26-$29 zone had to be tested as support, which was formally resistance. How or when it materialized is irrelevant as it just had to happen at some point.” That correction has played out and pivoted back into an uptrend after nailing $26 during the first week of May.

Let’s begin today with a link garden to numerous data points and commentary since mid-April, an update on the gold and silver charts, and we will close with a video presentation from May 9 where Danielle DiMartino Booth gives her latest views on the recession we are already in and the state of the job market.

• America’s National Debt “Death Spiral” – Heritage.org
• Antarctica volcano spewing gold dust baffles scientists – AFL Science
• Citi: Gold rally ‘bright like a diamond’ could reach $3K per ounce – NYP
• Citi: Wall Street Is Wrong to Slash Fed Interest Rates Cut Bets – Bloomberg
• U.S. added $11 trillion in debt since 2020 – David Ditch, Heritage.org
• Gold’s record-setting rally may have its roots in Chinese frenzy – Bloomberg

“Financial Tea Leaves: Yen is depreciating & yen carry trade under pressure; Regulators warning of clearing company bankruptcies; Moves by government to cut off self-custody of bitcoin; Bank failure announcement after close of market today. The hour of some kind of monetary reset draws ever closer.” – Edward Dowd, Apr. 26

“Effective April 30: Depository Trust Company (DTC) to assign 100% haircut to all cryptocurrency investments; Firms will no longer be able to utilize crypto as collateral, including ETFs and other spot products.” – M.B., Apr. 26

• Thailand Government Pension Fund shifts focus to gold & oil – Bangkok Post
• Africa & Middle East Withdraw Gold Reserves On US Economic Concerns – Houston Post
• China consumers overtake India in gold buying frenzy, “the only safe asset” – SCMP
• Harris Kupperman: Bond Market About To Have An “Aneurism” – QTR
• Japan Drifting Into A Yen Currency Crisis – The Dollar Endgame
• Fed’s Game of “Make Believe” Ending: Banking Crisis – Schiff Sovereign
• Global gold demand marked its best first quarter in 8 years – MarketWatch
• Treasuries Extend Gains After FOMC Less Hawkish Than Feared – Bloomberg
• FOMC holds rates in place and will slow balance sheet drawdown – Reuters
• Fake News Claim Trump Starting A Currency War – James Rickards (video)
• Goldman Sachs: Gold’s Price At $3,000 By Year’s End – Investing.com
• Gold bars selling like hot cakes in Korea’s stores and vending machines – CNBC
• Biden Denies Economic Reality In Car Crash CNN Interview – Modernity
• Why We Are at the Start of a Multi-Year Gold Bull Market – Jan Nieuwenhuijs
• Reality Dawns – Jobless Claims Suddenly Spike To Highest In 9 Months – ZH
• McDonald’s Offers $5 Meal Deal To Lure Back Broke Consumers – Bloomberg
• In Recession Since 4Q23: Fed, Jobs, Economy, Consumer – Danielle DiMartino Booth
• Your Bank Is Insolvent! Don’t believe me? Try To Take Your Money Out – Godfrey Bloom

 

Below is today’s technical analysis for gold and silver. Rips and dips in the dollar and breaking news events combined with the dominance of automated trading decisions, HFT platforms, and artificial intelligence radically influence price action across all financial markets in either direction at all times within microseconds and cause bouts of extreme volatility. Be mindful that a window of opportunity for swing or scalp trading precious metal ETFs, spot, options, futures, or mining stocks does not necessarily equate to timing for layering core long-term positions or purchasing physical bullion and coins. To view a larger version of any chart below, mouse over it and select or right-click and choose a “view image” option.

 

Gold Spot 4-hour and weekly chart as of May 10, 2024 close…

 

Excerpt from the Mar. 15, 2024 (Twitter thread) weekly gold chart analysis:

“The gold spot hourly chart posted on my Twitter feed on Mar. 5 shows where a Swiss Stair formation occurred and is indicative of institutional accumulation at the rally’s onset in the first week of March… On the weekly chart, note that the $2,195 high on Mar. 8 was within $5 of the $2,191 Fibonacci Extension level drawn on the weekly chart published on Jul. 31, 2020. Utilizing Fibonacci is a tried-and-true method for populating a blue-sky condition that’s devoid of price history, which is essential to identify price level targets over the horizon… Last week, the price decisively spiked through the Inverse Head & Shoulder’s Neckline. Now we wait and see IF the current retreat in price is a Throwback that tests the Neckline’s $2,100’ish as a solid level of support… The weekly’s DMI-ADX is at the early stage of a bullish Alligator Tongue setup… All the moving averages remain lined up perfectly, and buy Volume increased for two weeks but printed lower this past week. Again, price follows Volume, and levels that are at least close to previous bars during rallies are needed to confirm this rally has legs for the near-term. The chart is bullish with a Throwback in play.”

Excerpt from the Apr. 5, 2024 (Twitter thread) monthly gold chart analysis:

“Gold is certainly having its day in the sun while spring settles into North America. The price action has decisively spiked through the resistance zone in the $2,070s since late March, exited the primary consolidation phase that lasted a decade, and returned to a secular bull market in late March and early April… An updated monthly chart since gold’s 1999 low is in order. We are in deep blue-sky territory with powerful momentum and expect breathtaking rips and dips along the way… Last month’s buy Volume was solid, and April could match or possibly exceed March. There are overbought signals in the shorter time frames, but they are likely to produce shallow pullbacks, and momentum players will ladder long positions at every dip. This explosive rally will only slow after exhaustion. There is no candlestick history that can provide anyone with a definitive roadmap. Fibonacci and basic chart reading skills are all there are and a fun sandbox for seasoned traders. Friday closed at $2,327.50, and the chart is still bullish.”

Excerpt from the Apr. 15, 2024 (Twitter thread) weekly silver chart analysis:

“The gold spot price action registered a high of $2,431 last Friday before profit-taking prior to the weekend. Fibonacci Extension levels should be on your radar… The DMI-ADX remains in a bullish Alligator Tongue power trend setup on the daily, weekly, and monthly chart… Today’s high was $2,387 on solid buy Volume following the low of $2,324 early this morning. Market makers are awaiting Israel’s military response to Iran’s missile strikes. Today’s close was $2,383, and the chart remains bullish with no technical damage to speak of.”

Gold’s 4-hour chart clearly shows a three-step pullback that bottomed out at $2,280 and the 38.2% Fibonacci Extension level. The price action printed a high of $2,378 at Friday’s close after challenging congestion around $2,360 and a topside trendline drawn from the $2,431 all-time high on Apr. 12. On the weekly chart, gold’s entry into a secular bull phase may be forming a flagpole and Half Staff Flag that extends the rally to a third step at around $2,500 or higher this summer. Take note of those Fibonacci Extension levels. The DMI-ADX is still positive, the price is extended far beyond the 50 Exponential Moving Average (EMA), and the buy Volume bar was lowered last week. There might be some choppy consolidation before summer. Despite a pullback after leaving $2,100 in the dust two months ago, there is no technical damage, and the chart remains bullish.

Silver Spot 4-hour and weekly chart as of May 10, 2024 close…

 

Excerpt from the Mar. 15, 2024 (Twitter thread) weekly silver chart analysis:

“On the weekly chart, silver has still been consolidating since early 2022 with higher lows within an Ascending Triangle. Solid resistance is at the 23.6% Fibonacci and $26. Keep in mind that gold can drag silver upward but is fighting a recessionary downtrend in price that has been plaguing many commodities since mid-summer 2022. Roughly 50% of silver demand is for industrial use, not monetary. The current rally spiked through the EMAs and printed a high of $25.43 last week with Friday closing at $25.18. The weekly’s DMI-ADX is unremarkable without a bullish Alligator Tongue setup, StochRSI is partially overbought, Money Flow and Momentum are struggling to rise, the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) is in the overbought zone, and all the moving averages remain lined up nicely, but buy Volume has not increased. Again, Volume levels that are at least close to previous bars during solid rallies are needed to decisively breach $26 and challenge the $29 and $30 resistance. The price action is procrastinating but bullish.”

Excerpt from the Apr. 5, 2024 (Twitter thread) weekly silver chart analysis:

“Silver’s breakout above the Ascending Triangle’s topside trendline at $26 on Apr. 2 was significant. This rally was fueled by a Swiss Stair (noted in Twitter thread, but the 2-hour chart above was not published) pattern that began its buildout on Apr. 1, which resulted in a hefty gain just shy of $3 with Friday’s high at $27.48. There is minimal resistance from here until challenging $29 and $30. Do not be surprised if a Throwback occurs first to test $26 as solid support. Silver remains in a primary bull consolidation phase and will not return to a secular bull run until $50 is decisively taken out. The DMI-ADX rapidly formed an Alligator Tongue power trend setup along with improved buy Volume that’s been rising since mid-March. Every dip opportunity over the last two weeks was eagerly bought by momentum players. Time is rapidly running out for laddering core positions below $30 if this rally continues unabated. Friday closed at $27.43, and the chart is bullish.”

Excerpt from the Apr. 15, 2024 (Twitter thread) weekly silver chart analysis:

“The silver spot price action registered a high of $29.78 last Friday before profit-taking prior to the weekend. A low of $27.23 printed at the GLOBEX open on Sunday evening, and today’s high was $28.87. Support currently rests at $26.30, $27.23, and $28. Buy Volume is steady and strong on all three but printed an overall sell bar on the daily last Friday. As with gold, market makers are awaiting Israel’s military response to Iran’s missile strikes. Today’s close was $28.80, and the chart remains bullish with no technical damage to speak of.”

Silver’s 4-hour chart shows a bullish Falling Wedge that formed and bottomed at exactly $26 on May 2 after printing a high of $29.78 on Apr. 12. There was strong buying at each step down that provided fuel for May’s rally that has printed a high of $28.75 and closed at $28.15 on Friday. After more than two years as resistance at a Fibonacci Confluence, the weekly chart highlights why $26 was a significant support level to be tested. The DMI-ADX is still positive, but the buy Volume bar was lowered last week. There might be some choppy consolidation before $29 and $30 can be left in the dust. The Throwback is a positive development, and silver is likely to leave $29 and $30 behind this summer. There is no technical damage, and the chart remains bullish.

After listening to the following interview, note that it was Lacy Hunt who unequivocally made the case (read his 3Q23 & 4Q23 newsletter) for recession beginning in 4Q23 during his “Brace for Impact” interview (Part 1 and 2) with Wealthion last summer.

In Recession Since 4Q23: Fed, Jobs, Economy, Consumer – Danielle DiMartino Booth, May 9

 

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