There were hints about the gold spot chart price action when I published my last analysis on February 29. It is never wise to call or trade a move before its confirmation. A flood of geopolitical factors and economic data began to coalesce during the first week of March, which built a Swiss Stair pattern on gold’s hourly chart that’s indicative of institutional accumulation. That same candlestick pattern happens repeatedly prior to short-lived rallies due to fundamentals or news about current events.

The most explosive outcomes occur during an extended “primary bull” consolidative phase that challenges a strong resistance level before entering blue-sky territory, and then a lengthy intermediate stage of consolidation exhausts and attempts to decisively enter or return to a “secular bull” trend. The price of paper gold extended deeply into blue-sky terrain this month, and there is one final test that remains. A comprehensive example of the process has been clear on gold’s chart since the 1999 low with a primary phase during the Dotcom bubble fallout, a secular rally following 9/11 and the Great Financial Crisis that peaked at $1,921 in Sep. 2011, and then a new primary consolidation that has challenged the $2,075 resistance zone since Aug. 2020. Seasoned traders prefer a Throwback in price that confirms former resistance as solid support before committing extensive capital. Here is an excerpt from last month’s chart analysis:

“A sunny spring is just around the next curve in the road after oppressive winter weather, an acceleration of domestic and geopolitical crises, and keeping tabs on the gold and silver spot paper price action… The uptrend that typically occurs with gold and silver seasonality patterns has not manifested so far this winter, but the outcome is far from detrimental and very positive. My previous analyses penned in late November and mid-December of 2023, there were notes on the potential for extended consolidation.” – TraderStef, Feb. 29

Let’s begin today with a chart from Barclays bank, a few news items since February, an update on the gold and silver spot charts, and we will end with a macroeconomic overview by Jeffrey Gundlach.

 

• Barry Sternlicht on Fed Rates, CRE, Real Estate, 2024 Election – BloombergTV
• Central Bank Gold Buying to Remain Hot Next Several Years – Money Metals
• Fed Chair Tight-Lipped on Foreign Nations’ Evacuation of Gold from U.S. – Headline USA
• What You Need to Know About Gold’s Long-Term Bull Market – Jesse Colombo
• Nice rally in gold. New all-time highs. Countries going for gold – Jim Rickards
• Gold rises above $2,100 to highest level ever – CNBC
• China snapped up huge amount of gold for16 months in a row – Business Insider
• What Dollarization Says About Returning to the Gold Standard – Peter Schiff
• The Coming New Monetary System – Armstrong Economics
• Costco selling silver coins following success of gold bars – Fox Business
• Chinese central bank (PBOC) will continue buying Gold in 2024 – Commerzbank
• Hot CPI Inflation Won’t Hurt Fed Rate-Cut Hopes – Investor’s Business Daily
• What Is Vermeil and Other Gold Bullion Products – New York Magazine
• Gold miner building hydrogen power systems for mining boost – Mining Weekly
• Gold Beans All the Rage With China’s Gen Z – Bloomberg

Below is a technical analysis of the hourly charts since Feb. 29 and updated weekly charts to provide a near-term outlook on the potential price movement for a few weeks. Rips and dips in the dollar and breaking news events combined with the dominance of automated trading decisions, HFT platforms, and artificial intelligence radically influences the price action across all financial markets in either direction at all times within microseconds and causes bouts of extreme volatility. Be mindful that a window of opportunity for swing or scalp trading precious metal ETFs, spot, options, futures, or mining stocks does not necessarily equate to timing for layering core long-term positions or purchasing physical bullion and coins. To view a larger version of any chart below, mouse over it and select or right-click and choose a “view image” option.

 

Gold Spot weekly chart as of Mar. 15, 2024 close…

 

Gold Spot hourly chart vs. U.S. Dollar as of Mar. 15, 2024 close…

 

Excerpt from the Nov. 30, 2023 (thread) weekly gold chart analysis:

“Since gold’s $1,810 low during the week of Oct. 1… the Studies are indicative of a potential for additional price gains in the near-term…  It looks like the all-time high zone will be challenged but expand into a consolidation pattern before leaving the all-time highs behind… A notable increase in buy Volume must accompany any upside move for it to be decisive… The chart is bullish.”

Excerpt from the Dec. 22, 2023 (thread) weekly gold chart analysis:

“Bombing in Gaza resumed in earnest on the morning of Dec. 1 as Jay Powell prepared to deliver a speech on monetary policy. He provided a resounding hint that the FOMC policy decision on Dec. 13 would result in a continued pause in interest rate hikes. Both news events launched gold beyond the $2,070s all-time high zone at the GLOBEX open on Sunday evening, Dec. 3, but the buy Volume spike was muted and the $2,145 high quickly morphed into a profit-taking bonanza before markets opened on Monday in the U.S. Subsequently, the FOMC announcement went much further than a pause and forecasted that interest rate cuts were slated for 2024 with recession on the horizon. That rally shifted gold’s pattern dynamic on the weekly chart and confirmed an Inverse Head & Shoulders Continuation pattern that’s drawn back to the 2020 high and is reminiscent of how the chart looked from 2008-2009 during the Great Financial Crisis before a spectacular rally to new highs. Nested within the right half of the Inverse Head & Shoulders is an Ascending Triangle … As noted in the Nov. 30 analysis, if the all-time high zone was challenged without a coincident and sustained spike in buy Volume, the move would likely result in a Throwback and consolidation before leaving those all-time highs behind. It is healthy and preferred for the price action to build a base instead of moving too high too fast… The chart is bullish.”

Excerpt from the Feb. 29, 2024 (thread) weekly gold chart analysis:

“Minor changes have occurred with studies at the bottom of the chart, and we have essentially been at the status quo since mid-December. An expected consolidation is playing out with the price closing above the 23.6% Fibonacci level and $1,980 support that was resistance in the past. The choppy price action has gone on to form a bullish Half Staff Flag pattern following the 1-hour spike to $2,145 on Dec. 3. The candlestick bodies remain firmly above all Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) that assist in keeping the uptrend intact. Major resistance is at $2,100 around the Inverse Head & Shoulders Continuation pattern’s Neckline, and then a minor battle to the $2,145 all-time high. Support rests at $1,980, 21 EMA, 50 EMA, and around $1,940 at the 38.2% Fibonacci level. Gold printed $2,044 at today’s close in New York… Volume is paltry and must improve significantly for any breakout into the all-time high zone to establish new highs in blue-sky territory. The chart is bullish. (March 1 update: gold spot closed at $2,083)”

The gold spot hourly chart shows where a Swiss Stair formation occurred and is indicative of institutional accumulation at the rally’s onset in the first week of March. A heads-up was posted on my Twitter feed on Mar. 5. As of Friday’s close, the price action is taking a breather within a Symmetrical Triangle.

On the weekly chart, note that the $2,195 high on Mar. 8 was within $5 of the $2,191 Fibonacci Extension level drawn on the weekly chart published on Jul. 31, 2020. Utilizing Fibonacci is a tried-and-true method for populating a blue-sky condition that’s void of price history, which is essential to identify price level targets over the horizon. A new set of Fibonacci Extensions are included in today’s weekly and drawn off the new $2,195 high. The Half Staff Flag noted on Feb. 29 was confirmed as bullish last week when the price action decisively spiked through its topside trendline and the Inverse Head & Shoulder’s Neckline. Now we wait and see if the current retreat in price is a Throwback that tests the Neckline’s $2,100’ish as a solid level of support. Friday closed at $2,155.67.

The weekly’s DMI-ADX is at the early stage of a bullish Alligator Tongue setup, the StochRSI topped out and mirrors the Throwback, Money Flow and Momentum are struggling to rise, the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) tapped the overbought zone, all the moving averages remain lined up perfectly, and buy Volume increased for two weeks but printed lower this past week. Again, Volume levels that are at least close to previous bars during rallies are needed to confirm this rally has serious legs for the near-term. The chart is bullish with a Throwback in-play.

Silver Spot weekly chart as of Mar. 15, 2024 close…

 

Silver Spot hourly chart vs. U.S. Dollar as of Mar. 15, 2024 close…

 

Excerpt from the Nov.30, 2023 (thread) weekly silver chart analysis:

“Since silver’s $20.68 low during the week of Oct. 1, the price action rallied to a high of $25.28 today… closing in on $26 and the 23.6% Fibonacci level for a third tap… an Ascending Triangle has printed higher lows since August of 2022. For silver to have enough momentum to challenge $29 and $30, $26 must be left in the dust decisively with rising buy Volume. The chart is bullish, but caution is warranted until $26 is left in the dust.”

Excerpt from the Dec. 22, 2023 (thread) weekly silver chart analysis:

“Silver tagged along with gold until it ran into solid resistance at $26 and the 23.6% Fibonacci level. The price action is also in a positive consolidation phase and might finally have the legs to break away from $26 in 2024… Do not misconstrue the price point as being low compared to gold because that factor allows much larger moves on a percentage basis in either direction. The chart is bullish.”

Excerpt from the Feb. 29, 2024 (thread) weekly silver chart analysis:

“Silver is status quo since mid-December and in a tight consolidation with consistent closes above the 150 EMA, while wrapping around the EMAs above it and the 38.2% Fibonacci slicing through the center… The dominant pattern in-play is the Ascending Triangle drawn back to the highs in early 2022. Current resistance is between $23 and $24, with support resting at the 150 EMA, the lower trendline of the Ascending Triangle around $22, and the 200 EMA near $21.50. Silver printed $22.65 at today’s close in New York… Again, a significant uptick in buy Volume is required to retest $26 and have a shot at $29 and $30 resistance. The chart is neutral but has continued printing higher lows since last August. (March 1 update: silver spot closed at $23.24)”

The silver spot hourly chart is nearly a mirror of gold’s hourly except that silver’s price action headed higher following a Half Staff Flag vs. gold trending sideways within a Symmetrical Triangle. On the weekly chart, silver has still been consolidating since early 2022 with higher lows within an Ascending Triangle. Solid resistance is at the 23.6% Fibonacci and $26. Keep in mind that gold can drag silver upward but is fighting a recessionary downtrend in price that’s been plaguing many commodities since mid-summer 2022. Roughly 50% of silver demand is for industrial use, not monetary. The current rally spiked through the EMAs and printed a high of $25.43 last week, with Friday closing at $25.18.

The weekly’s DMI-ADX is unremarkable without a bullish Alligator Tongue setup, StochRSI is partially overbought, Money Flow and Momentum are struggling to rise, the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) is in the overbought zone, and all the moving averages remain lined up nicely, but buy Volume has not increased. Again, Volume levels that are at least close to previous bars during solid rallies are needed to decisively breach $26 and challenge the $29 and $30 resistance. The price action is procrastinating, but bullish.

Markets, Economic Data, Recession Deep Dives – Jeffrey Gundlach DoubleLine, Mar. 14 (note: commodities and bonds segments begin at 28:18 timestamp)

 

Plan Your Trade, Trade Your Plan

TraderStef on Twitter / Website: TraderStef.com

Headline Collage Art by TraderStef – Screenshot From “Paper Moon” (1973)