Let’s talk about the facts and evidence with the economy, because facts don’t lie. Currently, U.S. public and private debt stands at 375% of GDP, far above the historical average of 189.4% from 1870 to 2014. Rising interest rates in an economy that is already over-leveraged are a recipe for disaster, and that is exactly what we have, and it gets worse as you go around the world.
We are seeing investments and growth in fundamental sectors of our economy lag, as bartenders and waiter jobs soar in what has become the “Obama recovery.” Obama made a claim running for his second term to create 1 million manufacturing jobs by the end of 2016, which would have been an impressive accomplishment, but since 2007, the U.S. has lost 1 million manufacturing jobs. This isn’t exactly fundamental growth for our economy.
ISM manufacturing for January 2016 was dismal, at 48.2, showing that the economy is sluggish and contracting. Any number below 50 in this index indicates a contraction, rather than an expansion, and this is the third straight month we’ve seen it contract, with employment in this sector hitting 6.5-year lows.
You might hear that the private sector economy lodged 2.65 million new jobs last year, according to the Labor Department. Again, this might actually sound positive, but keep in mind that only 30,000 of those were in factories, an alarmingly low figure.
In our video we released on December 31, 2015 entitled Perfect Storm Market Collapse 2016, we go over the fact that the Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points was a total bluff in an attempt to “get off” of zero. With the markets shortly following with the worst January on record, it’s clear that interest rates are not going to be going up very fast anytime soon.
Quite frankly, with such an immediate negative reaction to raising interest rates from the stock market, it’s more likely that they would resort to more QE (aka QE4) to combat the volatility since QE has “worked” up until now without as much of a direct panic from the markets as interest rate hikes have had. Again, it’s all about perception, and QE has perceivably worked for the economy to those who don’t follow the markets as closely as we do.
In the end, we know it’s all temporary, and the true situation is unsustainable no matter what the Fed tries to do to contain the mess.
I just interviewed a man by the name of Jim Comiskey, with IFG Futures Group. His research is extensive and his knowledge of the markets is profound and worth listening to. Signs of a global meltdown are all around us, and he brings the facts to the table in an interview we just conducted.