One of the things I’ve learned is that just because something is inevitable doesn’t mean it needs to be imminent. Someone told me the other day that I was going to die and I jumped back for a second because it shocked me that someone would tell me this. And then after he started explaining himself, I knew he was just talking about the inevitability that we all face one day in this life. Sure, dying is inevitable, but that doesn’t have to mean it’s imminent.
There are a few things on the list today that I do believe are inevitable:
- Gold will have another major bull run
- The stock market is going to have a major correction/collapse
- Inflation will get out of control in America
- The dollar will lose its position as the world reserve currency and be replaced
I tend to believe that the run in the precious metals sector will most likely happen sooner rather than later, but as I stated before, just because something is inevitable does not mean it’s imminent. One of the things that people need to remember is that it’s roughly 30% cheaper to buy gold now than it was at its high, and it’s more than 60% cheaper to buy silver at current day prices. It’s common sense that there is more value in buying now than buying when precious metals were at their highs.
I suppose there are those that feel that being able to convert your dollars for real ounces is a deal regardless of what you are paying or have paid in dollars. This does make long-term sense, because there will be a time when we are going to wish that we could purchase an ounce of gold for just $3,000. But until then, be responsible and care about your investments when you make your purchases.
As for economic improvement, things just aren’t as good as the government would like you to believe.
To take just a few of the high (or low) points:
- Americans are still leaving the labor force
- Most of the new jobs created are part-time
- The vast majority of those are in services, which is to say waiters and bartenders and such
- Most new hires are over 55
The official unemployment rate is 5.4%. However, if you start counting all the people who want a job but gave up, all the people with part-time jobs that want a full-time job, and all the people who dropped off the unemployment rolls because their unemployment benefits ran out, etc., you get a more accurate picture of what the unemployment rate really is. This is the U-6 data that is put out by the BLS.
U-6 is much higher at 10.8%. However, this number and the U-6 10.8% figure would be way higher still, were it not for millions dropping out of the labor force over the past few years.
You have to remember that some of those dropping out of the labor force retired because they wanted to retire. The rest are disability fraud, forced retirement, discouraged workers, and kids moving back home because they cannot find a job.
This isn’t what you are going to hear from the government because it’s much more popular to polish the situation and paint a rosier picture because rosier pictures get votes. With the economy drugged up on QE and low interest rates, I am anxiously awaiting how they will play upcoming decisions considering how dependent the recovery has been on artificial stimuli.
People wonder how it’s possible for this to go on as long as it has. What people have to understand is the size and the momentum as a nation that America has is incomprehensible to standard logic. We cannot compare the nation’s out-of-control spending to our neighbor’s spending habits and apply the same sort of time frames to each situation.
Something that is inevitable does not mean it will be imminent, but the one thing I can say is each day that goes by is one day closer to that inevitable day actually occurring and for the day of reckoning to take place in America.