The collapse of the Ukrainian regime is a painfully slow trainwreck to witness while succumbing to another major loss on the battlefield yesterday that followed a major shakeup in Kyiv’s government when Zelensky replaced his top military general. The city of Avdiivka (Avdeyevka, Avdeevka) is a strategic location for logistical reasons where fighting intensified after the downfall of Bakhmut last spring and was deemed a “second Bakhmut” meat grinder for the long-established Ukrainian fortress with concrete bunkers. The 3rd Assault Brigade (aka Azov regiment) of the Ukrainian Armed Forces described the battle as a “hell worse than Bakhmut.” The Russian army recently took control of all supply routes into Avdiivka and encircled the city with a pincer movement. Capturing the city provides Russia with a major transportation and logistics hub for its troops and armor and a base for launching an offensive that could secure full control of the Donetsk and Luhansk provinces while advancing toward the Dnieper River.

Avdiivka became a frontline city in 2017 after civil war emerged following the Maidan Revolution (coup) in 2014. Avdiivka is in the Donbas Oblast and part of the separatist Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) that annexed with Russia in Sep. 2022 and is located just 5 miles away from DPR’s capitol of Donetsk City, which has been on the receiving end of shelling civilians via Avdiivka since 2014. The fall of Avdiivka was acknowledged yesterday by Zelensky and his new military chief, but neither explained how the Ukrainian soldiers and their equipment trapped in a cauldron could safely withdraw after refusing to surrender while Russian forces surrounded them.

Ukraine’s top general orders retreat from Avdiivka… “Ukraine’s new commander-in-chief General Oleksandr Syrsky has ordered his forces to pull out of the critical eastern town of Avdiivka to save the lives of his outgunned and outnumbered troops. ‘Based on the operational situation around Avdiivka, in order to avoid encirclement and preserve the lives and health of servicemen, I decided to withdraw our units from the city and move to defense on more favorable lines.’” – Financial Times, Feb. 17

Battle Map of Avdiivka Mar. 2023

Ukraine War Front vs. Russia Territory Oct. 2023

The following commentary from Alexander Mercouris is a realistic account of events that unfolded in recent days, and the second video highlights a German military analyst who gives a balanced view vs. DW’s anchor who delivers a sanguine view on the fall of Avdiivka.

Ukraine Implodes: Avdeyevka Defense Disintegrates, Troops Panic Flee; Thousands Trapped – The Duran, Feb. 16 (timestamp 9:30-25:25)

Ukraine withdraws from Avdiivka after months of fighting – DW, Feb. 17

The Soviet-era Avdiivka Coke and Chemical Plant is a massive industrial complex located in the city. It is one of Europe’s largest coal processing facilities and was the economic engine for residents that lived in and around the city. There was a pre-war population of roughly 32,000, but following evacuations throughout last year, it’s reported to be less than 1,000 that shelter in cellars of private homes and apartment basements. The city had been under constant bombardment, but some residents refused to leave as a symbol of the Ukrainian people’s determination to defend their country.

Because Ukraine was forced to be more conservative due to shortages of Western-supplied ammunition and equipment, it has been more sparing with what it has left in stock as the collective West in NATO debates whether to continue sending Ukraine the same level of supplies it could afford to relinquish in the past. Ukraine’s new army chief said on Wednesday that the situation on the frontline is “extremely difficult” since delays to much-needed U.S. military aid will determine how long his troops can hold a 620-mile frontline that barely moved in more than a year. The budget battle in Washington, D.C. over aid to Ukraine is in a stalemate while both Senator Chuck Schumer and National Security Council spokesman John Kirby are warning legislative colleagues and U.S. citizens that “U.S. blood will be spilled” if more war funding is not provided in a timely manner.

Meanwhile, Zelensky is on another whirlwind tour in Europe begging for more cash and warned that his troops are running out of weapons and ammo amid the fall of Avdiivka. He did manage to sign a security agreement with France and Germany, but it does not provide Ukraine with any immediate relief and was basically a political move against the potential for Trump taking back the White House in November. VP Kamala Harris attended the Munich Security Conference in Germany with Zelensky and was gaslighting the U.S. public and politicos by claiming the U.S. “can’t play political games” over Ukrainian aid. She failed to admit that the U.S. border crisis that Biden, Mayorkas, and herself have done nothing to solve is at the heart of the budget battle stalemate in D.C.

Zelensky asks West for more help as Russia encircles Avdiivka… “Ukraine risks losing crucial battle if US aid package fails, says think tank. Europe would need to double its support to make up the shortfall. President Zelensky has lamented flagging western military support for Ukraine as his commanders warned that they were facing ‘hell’ in the battle to hold on to the city of Avdiivka. In recent days Russian forces have been closing in on the beleaguered city, regarded as the gateway to the eastern Donbas region. The defense of Avdiivka has acquired symbolic significance and Russia hopes to use it as the platform for an offensive to drive the Ukrainians out of their remaining footholds in the Donetsk region. While the fighting around the city has been going on sporadically for almost two years, the Ukrainian defenders have been forced into a partial retreat.” – The Times U.K., Feb. 16

Zelensky signs security agreement with Germany & France – AP, Feb. 16

Lastly, the recent hoopla in the press over Russia developing space-based weaponry that is a threat to Western satellites is a nothing burger since both the U.S. and Russia already have non-nuclear electromagnetic pulse (EMP), laser, and directed-energy (DE) weapons that can take out military or civilian assets in space or on Earth. The relevant threat is Russia’s hypersonic missiles that have already rained down on Ukraine. As reported by CNN sources this morning:

“‘It’s not a new concept and, as a concept, dates back to the late Cold War,’ said one US official. But, they said, ‘the big fear with any eventual EMP device in orbit [is] it might render large portions of particular orbits unusable’ by creating a minefield of disabled satellites that ‘would then prove dangerous to any new satellites we might try to put up to replace or repair the existing satellites’… This would almost certainly be ‘a last-ditch weapon’ for Russia, the US official and other sources said — because it would do the same damage to whatever Russian satellites were also in the area.”

Feel free to peruse this “Little Green Men” series, and don’t miss “WW3 Bitchcraft” published last month.

Creedence Clearwater Revival – Bad Moon Rising (1970)

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