Less than two weeks after Hurricane Helene’s storm surge impacted Florida’s Gulf coastline killing 12 people and a storm surge wrecked communities near Tampa, Hurricane Milton has strengthened into a major hurricane and threatens a direct hit on the Tampa metro area with a population of more than 3.3 million people. Crews are still trying to clear as much debris as possible that remains due to Helene. Milton is expected to make landfall as a major category (CAT) 3 or 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale by Wednesday evening through Thursday. Interstate 75 traffic heading north is bumper-to-bumper as evacuees heed advice from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) to evacuate away from coastline communities and low-elevation inland areas within and near the forecast cone.

The following North American hurricanes since 1935 are notable with record cyclone wind speeds that developed in the Atlantic basin:

- 215 mph: Patricia (2015)
- 190 mph: Allen (1980)
- 185 mph: Labor Day (1935)
- 185 mph: Gilbert (1988)
- 185 mph: Linda (1997)
- 185 mph: Wilma (2005)
- 185 mph: Dorian (2019)
- 180 mph: Mitch (1998), Rita (2005), Rick (2009), Irma (2017), Milton (2024).
- 175 mph: Andrew (1992)

In less than 24 hours, Milton bombed out (aka “bombogenesis”) north of the Yucatan peninsula from barely hurricane strength into a major CAT 5 that can cause catastrophic damage to property and severe storm surges. Rapid intensification is defined as a central pressure drop of 24 millibars (mb) within 24 hours. The National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) aircraft measured a pressure of 882mb in the center of Wilma, which printed the lowest pressure ever measured in an Atlantic hurricane.

“Bomb cyclones are not common, but also not rare. A 2021 study led by Robert Fritzen from Northern Illinois University found about 7% of all nontropical low-pressure systems near North America from 1979 to 2019 were bomb cyclones. That amounted to about 18 bomb cyclones per year, on average, near North America in that 40-year period… Frequently, nor’easters are bomb cyclones due to cold air surging southward from Canada combined with the warm ocean waters of the Gulf Stream.” – Weather Underground, Dec. 2022

Between 1pm Sunday and 1pm Monday, Milton’s sustained surface wind speed went from 80 mph to 180 mph with 220 mph gusts, and its pressure dropped to a near record 897mb. Most of the intensification occurred within 12 hours, and it is one of the most rapidly intensifying storms on record in the Atlantic basin.

NHC Notification of Near Record Low Pressure in Hurricane Milton

Hurricane Milton Near Record Low Central Pressure – NHC Advisory 11A, Oct. 7, 8pm ET

Last evening, Milton went through an Eyewall Replacement Cycle (EWRC) following the formation of a small 3.8-mile-wide “pinhole eye” and bombogenesis with rapid intensification that increased its strength to CAT 5 status. The storm maintained its structure during the cycle, its eye widened and cleared out quickly, and the storm’s status was only reduced to a high-end CAT 4 in the process. Milton is slated to cross over the warm Gulf Stream Loop Current later this evening through tomorrow.

“Hurricane Milton Advisory 14: Milton Forecast to Retain Major Hurricane Status and Expand in Size While it Approaches the West Coast of Florida.” – @NHC_Atlantic, Oct. 8, 11am ET

“AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND THAT MILTON’S INTENSITY HAS REBOUNDED… TODAY IS THE LAST FULL DAY FOR FLORIDA RESIDENTS TO GET THEIR FAMILIES AND HOMES READY AND EVACUATE IF TOLD TO DO SO. Maximum Sustained Wind 155 mph, Movement ENE at 8 mph.” – NHC Advisory 14A, Oct. 8, 2pm ET

Milton Advisory 14A Track & Cone – NHC

Milton CAT 4 – Animation Visible Oct. 8, 2024 at 3pm ET

Despite all the chatter about dry air, potential shear lessening Milton’s intensity, and a possible second EWRC before landfall, the current satellite presentation looks like a strengthening hurricane with new convective bursts wrapping around its new 10-mile-wide eye. This storm is not unprecedented, but the last time a major hurricane impacted the area with a West to East trajectory, there were much fewer people. Furthermore, barrier islands were barriers, but they are now full of high-value real estate and a lot of bodies. The “buzzsaw” structure and strength of Milton foreshadows a nasty outcome and a large storm surge piling into Tampa Bay if the current storm track is on target. If you are anywhere that can get nailed by Milton’s fury, get out now!

Lastly, those who decided to build the U.S. military’s Central Command (CENTCOM) and a strategic airbase barely above sea level on a peninsula in the middle of Tampa Bay were idiots.