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Dear Reader,

Many of the problems we face in the U.S. are related to the debt bomb that has been created over the latest 100 years.  Many argue about the debt but certain figures can place this number as high as $750 trillion.  The $750 trillion is made up of roughly $65 trillion in debt, unfunded liabilities of around $200 trillion, and $500 trillion in derivatives.  Recently, the mainstream propaganda maintains that the debt ceiling means something ominous.  Intuition would tell you it does, but the debt ceiling has been raised 95 times since 1940 and 40 times since the turn of the century.  The truth is that it does matter but the decades of fiscal irresponsibility are a summation to this point.  U.S. debt-to-GDP is roughly 105% and the leading monetary economists from Harvard, (Kenneth Rogoff) would like you to believe that a sustainable economy can operate at a 90% clip.  Throughout history this number is more in the 60% range which in itself is in the outer limits of sustainability.  During the 1980’s, Ronald Reagan took this ratio from 35% to 55% and the last time we saw something around 60% was when Bill Clinton was in office.

Since 1981, U.S. debt has doubled every 8 years and at this pace the “publicly known” debt would be 40 trillion in 2025.  As of today, the U.S. debt limit stands at $18.113 trillion and the current known debt is $19.895 trillion.  In analyzing the credit expansion since 2000 there is a clear decoupling of the debt ceiling and the gold price.  The breakage in 2013 shows that lagging gold price should test the $1600 level and most likely go higher.  Other factors such as rising inflation as shown by the CPI in the last 2 years will move the price.  According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics inflation has gone from 0 to 2.5%.  This will cause more dollars to be used and ultimately lead to much higher inflation and a higher gold price.

“For more than two thousand years gold’s natural qualities made it man’s universal medium of exchange. In contrast to political money, gold is honest money that survived the ages and will live on long after the political fiats of today have gone the way of all paper.”-Hans F. Sennholz

-Colin Bennett

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