With all that has happened in the global economy, the one nation that was arguably at the epicenter of mass-scale rumblings has inconspicuously disappeared from the media headlines. A few years back, the mainstream press could not get enough of the Greek tragedy — after all, “if it bleeds, it leads.” Now, the attention is centered on gold, Janet Yellen, and the U.S. elections. With the fervor subsiding, is now the time to pounce on Greek stocks?
Let’s take a look at one of the more popular regional investments, National Bank of Greece (OTCMKTS:NBGGY). Year-to-date, NBGGY stock is down 30%. At its peak valuation in 2016, shares were up 4.3%, while at the bottom, shares lost 58%. From these numbers alone, we can surmise that the current market value is very close to the median value over the trailing nine month period.
From a technical standpoint, the valuation is neither overbought nor oversold. That’s an important note as trying to time the absolute bottom can have serious consequences. When markets are in panic, we simply don’t know when the fraught emotion will fade. Due to this indefinite nature, it’s often better to wait for some stability to be established.
Between early July until now, has trended slightly upward in a consistent channel. The significant of this dynamic is that it follows a fairly steep drop from its peak price of this year. Thus, we’re seeing the aforementioned stability, which gives us some degree of confidence that NBGGY is building momentum.
That of course doesn’t guarantee profitability. One of the big warning signs is the broader European economy. Germany is the de facto leader of the European Union, yet its market growth is rather ho-hum. The DAX index — their equivalent of the Dow Jones — is up 4%. However, this is only a recent development. Up until the closing days of July, the DAX was in fact down for the year.
The bullish counterargument is that the DAX is showing robust movement in a short time period. In addition, the Global X Funds Greece (NYSEARCA:GREK) is also rising with the wind to its back. Over the past 30 days, the GREK is up 7% — notable due to the collapse in valuation it saw earlier in June.
How does this all add up? As a speculative, short-term trade, NBGGY and other Greece-based stocks could see some strong gains. But as a long-term investment, the picture gets very cloudy. That’s not to say that Greece can’t be a viable investment. However, we have to respect the fundamentals — and they don’t exactly spell a bright future.